Developing realistic expectations for World Cup

[Martin-Reza]

The nice thing about football is that often things come other than expected, but I thought about what to expect from the World Cup since the draw and I must say expecting anything but the third place in the group is unrealistic.

Again, this doesn't mean we are chanceless or should be afraid, we surely have enough quality to beat any team, but if I had to bet my money on it, I'd say the most likely outcome is the third place.

If we look at Portugal, we see a team full of star players from great European teams (Barcelona, Chelsea, ManU, Inter) and players from the domestic league, which undoubtedly is stronger than the IPL. The players, both at club level as well as on national team level, regulary face topsides, while our players barely have experience in international competitions and mostly play weak opposition playing destructive football. Apart from Mahdavikia and Daei, no player has any World Cup experience or considerable European Cup experience (Hashemian and Karimi 2 Champions League matches each). This experience factor is a huge deficit in my eyes.

Looking at Mexico we first see they were among the 8 top seeds, so according to FIFA even stronger than Portugal. Of course FIFA bases the seeding on FIFA ranking and WC performances in 98 and 2002, so it might not fully be objective. If we look at the Mexican players, we see that not many play in Europe, however, the Mexican league is known as very strong league, where many stars of South and Central America gather. I believe the league is stronger than IPL too. Furthermore most Mexican national team players have international experience, eg. from the past World Cup or the recent Confederations Cup. I think our chances against them are a bit better than against Portugal, but yet we are underdogs in that match.

Finally Angola can't match the quality (and number) of Iran's players abroad, neither is their league stronger than the IPL. The international experience of their players is even less than our players', so these two aspects speak for Iran.

Other considerable factors are coach (but I don't feel in the position to compare the coaches, just think Scolari stands out), pressure (Portugal and Mexico will have huge pressure, Angola little - if any - and Iran will have a lot of pressure from Iran, but not as much as the two top sides), adaption to weather conditions, preperations and supporters. But none of them is strong enough to really make up for quality and experience.

So I think we must be realistic enough not to consider it as catastrophe if we don't advance from the group stage, although I hope and believe we indeed could upset one of the stronger teams and achieve a little sensation.

Your opinions welcome.

[zzgloo]

Dear martin Reza,....
although,your assesment is logical, but I must say, is very cold, and not to be believed by a typial Iranian fan....
Today's football is not all that predetermind,,,,and the differences among teams are not as huge as once was.....
In your comment, you said,,,,," expecting other than third place is unrealistic "......, we all know ,that in mexico and portugal,they have better leagues,and more expereinced players, yet..they also have thier share of weaknesses.....and they have never achived thier own expectations either...
you As person of faith in Branko's ability, and encouraging others to be patinet...I expected more out of your expectations.

[Martin-Reza]

Well, expectations should be defined cool-minded and not by what we'd like. Of course the differences are not huge - that's why I didn't say we cannot beat those teams.

You are also right about those teams having their share of weakness, but our share is bigger than theirs, that's why we cannot expect to beat them.

The problem I see is, as you say, that the typical Iranian fan refuses to believe (or rather accept) that. The opposition is underrated and so will any success against them be underrated, should we have any. I am afraid there will never be a real step forward in Iran's football before the fans don't develop a more realistic sense of Iran's strength.

In order to see the vast difference between how many Iranian fans see it and the rest of the world see it, just take a look at the betting odds (here from betandwin as example). And don't forget, they are not assessing emotionally or by what they'd like to, for them it's dead serious business, it's about lots of money and the right assessment is important for their existance. That doesn't necessarily make them right, but it makes them more objective than the typical Iranian fan.

Iran 2.85 X 3.20 Angola 2.30

Groupwinners:
Portugal 1.70
Mexiko 2.35
Angola 15.00
Iran 23.00

Which teams will qualify from Group D?:
Angola 3.25
Iran 4.25
Mexiko 1.25
Portugal 1.12

[zzgloo]

As an iranian fan, I shall refuse to believe we are doomed.....
Football,is not mathematics,nor estatistics......that is why, they call it a GAME !

[Martin-Reza]

Please don't misinterpret what I said. I never said we are doomed or anything like that. I just think we must accept a third place in this group is no catastrophe but the most likely outcome - yet we must aim to finish second of course, which is indeed possible!

[186forever]

True, but I still believe that 4 points is very well possilbe and not beyond expectation.

[Doctor DOOM]

zz jan, actually the problem lies with fools like :
cameroon , nigeria, turkey, s korea, senegal, .... who didnt follow the "logic" and "rules"

the ninkumpoohs didnt even bother to read the memo given to them stating :

"You, the recipient of this memo, have been chosen by the high committe of XXXX logic and have been sentenced to bow down and crumble when facing teams like argentina, france, italy, spain, .... .
You are instructed , by the same logic, to stay "too sari khor" and lay down or bend over ( whichever suits you most ) in such confrontations, lest we see such atrocities as North korea's 1960's run, which is considered an utter blasphemy and an aberration in fabric of reality.

It is not adviced, however , is looked kindly upon, if you utter such sounds as Baaaaaa Baaaaaaaa , every 20-30 minutes. We can promise such acts will be taken into consideration at a later date for rewards and other prizes.

should you be seen to have the impertinence to actually dare to want more, or have the audacity to strive for higher positions, you will be dealt with severely.

You are encouraged to limit your desires and wants.
you are encouraged to accept any level or standards pressed upon you.
You are advised to not only accede , but also propogate mediocrity.
You are ordered to lower the expectations of your beligerent fans, lest you exercise the limits of admonishment by our committee."

I believe such a memo has been already dispatched to us ( IFF ) , hence our recent performances.

in fact I hear fifa is planning to severely punish those teams that stand up to bigger teams and actually challenge them for higher glory !



mediocrity and sheepish contentment is the NEW world order.

[zzgloo]

DD jan, I understand what you mean,and I although know what Martin-reza is saying,which is very logical, yet, there are good points and signals that indicate we have better chances and yes,can have higher EXPECTATIONS !!!

1- Mexico,is the weakest first seeded team.

2- mexicans ,culturaly, do not intimidate us.

3-mexicans do not have better physics than we do.

4-Portugal,is an inconsistant football team.

5-Portugal,is among weaker secound seeded teams.

6-Angola, is ranked may be the 8 th most powerful team in the Africa...Tunesia is ranked 28 th, togo,ghana,and Iv,coast are between 41 th to 56 th ranked, and angola is ranked 62 nd,ranked in the world, and more over,moraco,nigeria,cameroon,senegal,and south africa are ranked better than Angola.......so, ralationship of angola to africa, is like the united arab emerates in Asia.

7- in last two years, angola has played with Portugal twice, and it has lost both times..5-1 and 6-0.

8- mexico 7 th rank in the world, is extremly overrated, and the rank 15 or 16 is fairer.

9-Iranian team,is the most powerful Iranian team ever.

10-Iranian team has more European experinced players than mexico or angola.

11- Iran will have better ,and more fans in stands,than mexico or angola.

12- portugal, in its lost to Korea,in the last world cup,did not impress anybody.

[Nokhodi]

I agree with you Martin-Reza, but I don't want TM to underperform. Why are we hearing nothing about friendlies for TM other than some rumours about a match with Honduras? This is absolutely pissing me off, seeing how even teams like Saudi have been able to arrange friendlies, and how Sweden is pretty much asking a middle eastern team to play them.
Sure I know only 2 of those dates will feature the full squads, but some decent friendlies can be arranged to test our domestic players, and fix out formation problems.
Money should not be an issue, FIFA has awarded IFF plenty of money, and at this point most national teams are not asking for too much to play a friendly, seeing that they need preparation against teams that will be in the WC.

[Doctor DOOM]

zz jan, ghorboonet.

excellently dissected.

my question is with all your points considered, shd not we see this WC as the one chance we will get in a long time ( and ever had previosuly ) to SHINE ?

with all the above points, I would say we must utilize everything, every possible thing at our disposal to make sure we dont come back and say "ahh , I wish we had done that better", or "we could have had this one too", or ... later !

hence my post :
CEASE THE DAY.

cease the opportunity.

who knows when we're gonna have such a group?
maybe the next time ( which is not necessarily in 2010 ) we'd get a group like argentina's !

so THIS is the time to aim high.
and this is the time to make sure we get 110% out of the team and campaign.

to settle for mediocrity and low standards, just becoz we feel "inferior" and see things as if "we shd not dare ... " , to me, is a CRIMINAL WASTE OF OPPORTUNITY.

[perspolees]

thats what I believe as well.
realistically we wont go thru and will come in third.
the genius of a plan would be increasing our chances of becoming second..

as little as that chance is I believe in going full force on exploring it, something that witht he current technical staff will not be possible so coming third is the best that this Iran could do...

[faraz]

It wouldn't be a catastrophe if we didn't qualify, but i'd at least like Iran to make the EFFORT. Who knows when the next time will be when we get to play in a WC, and get this sort of group, which is not as difficult as you make it out to be IMO.

I whole-heartedly expect Branko to aim for FIRST in the group - not even second. We are capable of competing with these sides, and if there's ONE (just ONE) time when we should put the gas on the throttle its now.

As long as there are certain changes in the squad (some pertaining to Branko, some not), i see no reason why we should not aim to win the group.

MR jan - the time to be realistic is not now. Playing in the WC is no longer about what leagues you play in, what stars you have - it's about motivation, hunger, desire and courage.

I hope to see all 4 attributes from TM, nothing more, nothing less.

[Martin-Reza]

Well, I think being realistic is the first step for higher dreams. I doubt you can have success if you expect to beat Mexico in the opener and believe Portugal is no big obstacle.

First we need to accept the situation, respect our opposition and know they are stronger than us in several departments. If we then don't make the mistake of being afraid or having too much respect, I think everything will be set for bigger targets.

The first step must be realizing though we are clear underdogs against Portugal and Mexico.

[maij]

There is no question in my mind about the ability of Iran to challenge both Portugal and Mexico in this group. Despite the advantages and the more experience of these 2 teams , we have enough strength and depth to upset both these teams.

In the WC qualifying matches, Portugal have not impressed me and I think they are there for the taking , while Mexico is the stronger of the two.

The question in my mind is whether the team melli and the coach have enough mental agility and desire to beat these 2.

It is no good going into the matches fearing the opposition or having far too much respect for them. Trying not to get beaten or humiliated is also not going to take TM very far.

If there is enough determination by the players and the coach , in parallel to the talent and individual skills that TM has , I do not see that beating either of the 2 teams as a difficult task.


Branko never struck me as an adventurous coach, however , and maybe since the World Cup is the ultimate stage with immense exposure , he might just be tempted to give it a good fight......

I say , it is mostly in the mind.....

[Amirza]

zz jan, actually the problem lies with fools like :
cameroon , nigeria, turkey, s korea, senegal, .... who didnt follow the "logic" and "rules"

the ninkumpoohs didnt even bother to read the memo given to them stating :

"You, the recipient of this memo, have been chosen by the high committe of XXXX logic and have been sentenced to bow down and crumble when facing teams like argentina, france, italy, spain, .... .
You are instructed , by the same logic, to stay "too sari khor" and lay down or bend over ( whichever suits you most ) in such confrontations, lest we see such atrocities as North korea's 1960's run, which is considered an utter blasphemy and an aberration in fabric of reality.

Exellent response.
Martin-Reza jaan - to me it seems like you are already preparing yourself for the let-down !! Personaly my expectations are not too high at all - especialy remembering the last official games our TM played. However - instead of living with my low expectations, I am voicing my concern trying to get officials make the necessary adjustments. But - one thing is for certain - come the first game - all of us will look for nothing less than victories against the 3 teams (well maybe a tie against Portugal) - the question is: Will Branco have the same attitude ? or will he present Iran as a Chicken Nation - defending with 7 players and the Lone Gamboo as the only player in the opposition half.