We Have Decent chances !

[zzgloo]

OK, .....
We do not want to lie to ourseleves, nor do we want to be , excesively positive or negative.........but what exactly are our chances ?....which in my opinion, It is not depressing at all !

We have played one less game than others ( except south Korea ), and had we have already played against UAE,and got the 3 points ""in Iran "" ( which is not too much wishful thinking )..we would have been in the " Thick of the things "...against teams whom need the points just as bad as we do !,and he who gets the point will adavance....

I hear some say we are finished, or our chances at the best " is not impossible "........
But I would realistickly think, our chances, are " Very Decent "....which means...we could forget what happened in the past...and if, from now on, we play as we are normaly expected...we should not have much problem for qualification.

[Martin-Reza]

I totally agree. DPR Korea is the key. I don't want to underrate the opposition, but a win in Pyongyan would surely not be a wonder.

The problem is we usually quite often stumble. And now we have already stumbled enough and can't afford any other setups anymore.

[BehzadB]

this is a very good North Korea team that we have to beat. They are surly going to play a defensive game, as they don't need a win in this game. They are going to rely on Counters. We need speedy players in the backfield. we may have to go with 3 defenders in this game to have an extra player up front.. whatever the plan, we must be prepared for their counters and someone has to mark number 12 of North Korea. We also need to work on our crosses, we might need a lot of them..

bottom line, we need to have someone step up. Hopefully more than one player will step up and take care of business.

[Martin-Reza]

we may have to go with 3 defenders in this game to have an extra player up front..

I don't think a threeback would give us an extra man upfront as usually at least one of the fullbacks is coming forward anyway. In a threeback usually all three defenders stay in the backline.

Anyway, I agree nr 12 is very dangerous. Their other keyplayer is number 10 btw.

[Doctor DOOM]

this is a typical situation where they say "you even throw the kitchen sink at the opponent".
for those not familiar with the phrase, it means try EVERY BLOODY ROUTE POSSIBLE. be it from the sides, aerial, cutting through, dribbling in, shooting, free kicks, physical, speed, ... .

and luckily we DO have players that each provide one or two of these criteria. as long as we are clear in our objective of scoring MORE goals than conceding, we shd be fine.

and we shd have a plan for each 15 minutes of the game in every case & eventuality.
like what if we're ahead by a goal by min 75. do we pull back? do we add to the midfield? do we attack? how ?

or what if it happens in the last 8-10 minu's? coz this is very different from getting ahead by min 60-75. so it needs a diff plan with perhaps diffreent players and subs.

or what if we're equal by min 75 ? kitchen sink strategy of calling in another forward? or a mid? .... etc.

I really hope all these cases are worked on and we have a plan for them.


------------

BTW, lets not forget this fact that THIS YEAR's NKorea is nothing like the NKorea of 2005.
these guys are smarter, more organized, more experienced and far more driven and motivated than that 2005 team .
so throw away all those notions of what happened 4 years back.
it's almost a brand new team with much higher levels of skills and quality that has given big asians like SKorea and ksa a good run for their money and have come up with points.




================

a while ago I criticized rezaei and khalatbari on their inexperience up front after when they do some marvelous piece of dribbling or sprint or .... which due to the presence of adrenaline, they stop thinking clearly and try to "go it alone till the end" and go for the spectacular, .... when they have mates in better position on either side, waiting for the pass.

this is the difference between a USEFUL TEAM player and a talented player who stll has a lot to learn to be that useful.

today's khalili goal is through such a contrasting mastery by karimi, who did the marvelous 90% of the job , but was mature and experienced enough to acknowledge his mate is in a better position than him and while he still had an opening to the goal, passed to khalili, who finished the job.

I am ready to bet if either khalatbari or rezaei had gone through the opponents' defense in that manner, they'd NEVER have passed the ball and would have gone for the goal themselves! as seen on countless occasions !!

now, you see why presence of a level headed karimi is that much important to us?
even if we use him for 60-70 minutes only

[zzgloo]

All we need is some " TRICK PLAYS " !!!
Trick plays are what is called in american football, are set of pre-practiced manouverings,and passes, to get some one open in the opponanat's BOX !!
It could be a set of Cunning set ups & passes, to trick defenses...
If these tricks plays, are well designed,and very well practiced, and very well timed......they could give results !!....
and the time for them, is the very first 5 minutes of the game !!!!,or when it is least expected.

As Martin Jaan said, we just do not have any more time for stumbles, and our ordinary self should be sufficient do the job.

[BehzadB]

I don't think a threeback would give us an extra man upfront as usually at least one of the fullbacks is coming forward anyway. In a threeback usually all three defenders stay in the backline.

oh no. I didn't mean that 3 back would give us extra man up front. I meant instead of using 4 back and asking one of them go forward, use 3 backs and add a real striker/OM and keep him there.

I know with 4 backs we send someone forward often, but our backs aren't any good at playing offense. even kaabi isn't exactly producing offense. Haven't seen him be effective offensively since 2004. we need a real OM/Striker added who would be present in front of the box of the North Koreans, the whole game. and that's one area that I thought we have "extra" players in. unlike good strikers and backs.. we seem to have several good OM.. so let's use more of them.

I think a combination of Khalatabari/shojaie/gholamnezajd/karimi/hasheamin/ backed up by 2 DM's and 3 full backs, should produce enough offense to give us a win.

[Martin-Reza]

oh no. I didn't mean that 3 back would give us extra man up front. I meant instead of using 4 back and asking one of them go forward, use 3 backs and add a real striker/OM and keep him there.
I know with 4 backs we send someone forward often, but our backs aren't any good at playing offense. even kaabi isn't exactly producing offense. Haven't seen him be effective offensively since 2004. we need a real OM/Striker added who would be present in front of the box of the North Koreans, the whole game. and that's one area that I thought we have "extra" players in. unlike good strikers and backs.. we seem to have several good OM.. so let's use more of them.
I think a combination of Khalatabari/shojaie/gholamnezajd/karimi/hasheamin/ backed up by 2 DM's and 3 full backs, should produce enough offense to give us a win.

Yeah, I meant that. I personally just think in fourback systems you can basically have 8 players with offensive capabilities, while in threeback systems you only have 7. So an offensive minded fourback system in my opinion is more offensive than any threeback variant.

Of course, instead of two wingbacks you'd have an additional centerback and an additional offensive player. Although normally the side midfielders will be bound in defense more and so you mostly lose the offensive gain again.

I mean that is just my personal, unqualified, tactical opinion.

[BehzadB]

So an offensive minded fourback system in my opinion is more offensive than any threeback variant.

but for that to happen you have to have 4 backs that can actually play going forward. Unfortunately, in Iran, our backs are very poor at even making simple passes going forward, (Kaabi being an exception, and he too is pretty poor), and on top of that, they are slow getting back, (kaabi being an exception).

[Martin-Reza]

I think having actual side midfielders as wingbacks is enough, like we have.

Just look at the Esteghlal system. I think they would win an additional offensive player if they pulled back Heydari and whoever plays on the left (Amirabadi, Beikzadeh or Maniei) slightly and would cut off either Ghorbani, Montazeri or Koushki, who's offensive contribution is zero, apart from setpieces. Again here the question how much of that gain is lost by pulling back the wingbacks.

[zereshk-ali]

I totally agree. DPR Korea is the key. I don't want to underrate the opposition, but a win in Pyongyan would surely not be a wonder.

The problem is we usually quite often stumble. And now we have already stumbled enough and can't afford any other setups anymore.

This is exactly the problem we face. It's more of a mental challenge for our team that we know we can't afford not to win.

Because of the attacking mentality we need to take to Pyongyang this could potentially make the win much more difficult to achieve than had we only needed a draw.

However, we also know we have previously raised our game when we knew we had to win an away match (e.g. Jordan in 06 qualifiers). I think it could suit our game more to try to control the game with an attacking possession game rather than to sit back and try to rely on an unreliable defence.

In terms of the formation, 4 at the back is a must for me. We need to try and pin Korea back in their half with our full backs pushing on. I just don't think a 3 centre back system works at the top level.

[Doctor DOOM]

the present 4 back line is adequate and I dont see any reason to reduce it and change it to a totally different system of 3 man defense.

especially since we have seen the koreans use the flanks well and we HAVE TO have ppl covering both the flanks for us. a 4 man defense line is a more reliable one than a 3 man cluster, which allows space on both sides.


secondly, to extract an extra slot for the second striker, there's no need to go to the back line. take one of the def-mids and put a playmaker instead , which frees up the OM slot in front of him, which can be used for the second striker.

this 4-4-2 is a very simple AND balanced formation where you have all that you need:
- a defensive minded guard in midfield, shielding the defense line.
- a creative mind who controls the movement of the team
- two active flank players that provide width to the team

as the age old saying goes: "SIMPLICITY is the key to success"
or as some coaches say: when in doubt, simplify
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on the RB and LB's offensive uses, I think heydari can deliver both defensive and offensive duties of this game ( far better than the present kaabi. lets keep players' form in mind here ). he can be added to our offensive surges from time to time.
on the left, I think ashjari will not be given such free reign, but his crosses off his left foot have been adequately accurate and penetrating so he also can add a bit to our offense from the left.

[zereshk-ali]

^ Wouldn't argue against Kaebi's replacement after his defensive error against Saudi. However, I feel even more nervous about Aghili's total lack of pace, especially against teams that will break quickly.