Positives in Ghotbi's Team!

[Hajagha]

Comparison of the last three Team Melli coaches:

Interesting table Majid jan.

Overall, Ghotbi was neither disaster nor savior. However, his salary and his time on the job was way higher than the other two, his results were lower (maybe not significantly). His AC results definitely helped his stat.

Let’s see if the new coach can improve this stat. I doubt though. I think we should improve in other departments to see the result in TM stat. One obvious proof for me is KSA struggling situation with expensive coaches. They couldn’t redeem themselves, why should we?

Cheers,

[maij]

You brought up an interesting angle to the stats , Reza Jan. and that is the salary. This can be calculated as unit of yield.

I am not too sure how much GN was getting , but I know that Ghotbi was getting double what Daei received. US$ 800k vs Less than US400. Also , Ghotbi received a substantial percentage of his contract in advance , while Daei was not paid until about 4 or 5 months after he took over Team Melli coaching job.

So , if we add this monetary value to the whole performance , Ghotbi would be the the worst of the three with the lowest yield. He did not even win the customary WAFF just to add something to his own profile and CV!

[maij]

It is interesting to see that Daei had the best attack records, best defense and the best winning percentage.

If we assume that football in Iran did not go through an major development from 2007 up to now and in particular during the 3 regimes of Team Melli coaches, how did Daei manage to have the better records to the other two ?

Figures do not lie , as they say .

Is it the players selection i.e has Daei selected the better players?
Is it the strategy deployment of the coach ? some like defensive team while others prefer offensive plans.
Does it have anything to do with the coach's character , charisma , power , strength , demeanor and influence ?


It is quote interesting to get some views.

In UK , most of the clubs study the stats quite meticulously before selecting coaching staff. Of course , every club management has its own version of statistical analysis. Quite a few answers can be found in such analysis.

Saying all that , there is no one in love with sporting stats like the Americans. Perhaps that partly explains their advance status in all sports.

[Babak agha]

^ perhaps you should include the opponent, their line-up (A or B team) and form in that era (Saudi for example had been in a free fall) as variables too to get a better idea.

Cause the result of a friendly against UAE Vs a WCQ game in and against South Korea shouldn't have the same value/impact/ratio/significance to your statistics.

But football is a simple game and maybe it should treathed/judge that way too: maybe it suffice to see whether a coach has reached it's pre-set targets or not. In case of a failure: what was the reason for it (circumstance, bad luck, available players, a way too lucky and in firm opponent, etc.) and how big was the failure and it's consequence.

Then again there is a saying about people in spotlight (actors, athletes, coaches, politicians,etc.) which might be even more important than the last two views: "you're only good as your last movie/single/game/etc."

[Hajagha]

It is interesting to see that Daei had the best attack records, best defense and the best winning percentage.

It's true. The question would be "is it meaningful?" or just over-reading of the same old testimony?

One may come and say, Ghotbi played against this and that, or Ghalenoui had this player or that, or…

If I had to choose between these three, I would go with better stat, but does it satisfy my desire? Definitely not.

I express my view again which I don’t think we can improve a lot at TM level by just changing the coach. Saying that, a coach may change the whole football environment by his ideas/influence/…

I watched “dorbin-e khabar saz” today, showing only handful spectators watching an IPL match who were actually a few thugs brought to curse at the other team. So, what football became in Iran? Where is the safe environment we would let our kids to play, love and improve in this sport?

One may say, by TM success, we improve at our clubs as well, and resolve this disastrous situation.

I say, shouldn’t it be the other way around? If I were in charge, I would start from the clubs, and make sure every inch of improvement can be shown at national level by having a "qualified coach". I would made football a safe hobby for the families and bring the families to the stadia, and move toward the privatization of the clubs. I would support the clubs to achieve this important goal. I am sure that success will come in no time.

Cheers,

[zzgloo]

People tend to take only one game as how to remember a coach....rather than statistic :

1- Branko's Loss vs Mexico
2-Ghalenoee's loss vs South Korea
3-Daei's Loss vs Saudi's
4-Ghotbi's Loss vs South Korea

[maij]

When it comes to Statistical analysis , it is up to the organization or the individuals how to extract the required results based on the objectives.

I Fully understand what you say about is it "Meaningful" , and the short answer is ; depends on what is your objective.

Also , when you single out records from the data , like GN played this team which is stronger than the one that Ghotbi played . or Daei lost an important game , while Ghotbi did not ; then you are introducing bias in the formula and that bias could be detrimental to the result. What the experts say is that the average takes care of most of people's concern, specially on the long run.

A quick look at the data here , it is seems to me that Daei was more attack minded than the rest while GN results indicate he had a solid defensive team. You can interpolate these results the way you want it, though.

[Ali Chicago]

When it comes to Statistical analysis , it is up to the organization or the individuals how to extract the required results based on the objectives.

I Fully understand what you say about is it "Meaningful" , and the short answer is ; depends on what is your objective.

Also , when you single out records from the data , like GN played this team which is stronger than the one that Ghotbi played . or Daei lost an important game , while Ghotbi did not ; then you are introducing bias in the formula and that bias could be detrimental to the result. What the experts say is that the average takes care of most of people's concern, specially on the long run.

A quick look at the data here , it is seems to me that Daei was more attack minded than the rest while GN results indicate he had a solid defensive team. You can interpolate these results the way you want it, though.

I am surprised by your claim that under Daie TM player more attack minded. I remember TM under GN beat Korea in Tehran Asian Cup 2007 qualification 2-0 and played pretty well at least in that game. Even in the first leg of AC 2007 qualification when Iran went down 1-0 in Seoul, second half our boys attacked very well and eventually Iran tied in extra time by Vahid Hashemian goal.
I am a long term critic of Daie and admit I am biased, however, from the games that TM played under Daie, I can't recall a single game that our team played an offensive football. I remember how UAE dominated our team in UAE in the first leg of the WC2010 qualification and we were so lucky to come out with a draw. Game against North Korea in Tehran was dreadful as well. Again I am going by memory and I can be worng

[Doctor DOOM]

stats dont show the whole truth.

so since some of the friends are hung on stats and numbers, then let us create a more reliable system of allotting points that have a closer resemblance to the truth.

lets face it. a win is not necessarily a win. in reality.

winning against singapore is not defeating south korea.
beating armenia is not beating russia

I remember a couple of years back some of us came up with something (albeit complicated) that was closer to a true rating (I think yashar or farzad also did bring up this matter too).

lets separate games against LOWER ranked teams from HIGHER ranked ones.
allotting more points to wins against the latter than the former.
and by the same token, reduce more points in losses against the former than the latter match ups.
this can be done using fifa ranking (hey, that cucumber has to have some bloody use , some day)
same way in case of playing AT HOME versus those AWAY FROM HOME.


for example besides the wins or draws or losses allocation of 3, 1 and 0 points, we add the following too:

- wins in official games - add 1 point
- wins in friendlies - no extra points
- losses in official games - reduce an extra point
- losses in friendlies - no reduction

- winning a higher ranked team - add points between 1 to 3 (depending on how far up the opponents rank is)
- draw vs a high ranked team - add between 1-2 points (with 2 for very high ranking teams)
- losing to a lower ranked team - reduce 1-3 points (depends on the opponent's rank. the lower, the more points reduced)
- drawing vs. a lower ranked team - reduce 1 point

- a win with more than 3 goals margin (or 3 goals scored) - add 1-3 points (depending on the rank of opponents)
- a loss with more than 3 goals margin (or 3 goals conceded) - reduce 1-3 ( .... the same as above)

- winning AWAY from home - add 1 point
- losing AT HOME - reduce an extra point

- wins against european teams - add between 2-3 points (depending on ranks)
- losses against europeans - reduce between 0-1 (depending on ranks)
- ... same thing against african teams and south aemrican ones, ... etc etc



once you decide on each point allocation, then you can rate a coach's true record.

[maij]

I am surprised by your claim that under Daie TM player more attack minded. I remember TM under GN beat Korea in Tehran Asian Cup 2007 qualification 2-0 and played pretty well at least in that game. Even in the first leg of AC 2007 qualification when Iran went down 1-0 in Seoul, second half our boys attacked very well and eventually Iran tied in extra time by Vahid Hashemian goal.
I am a long term critic of Daie and admit I am biased, however, from the games that TM played under Daie, I can't recall a single game that our team played an offensive football. I remember how UAE dominated our team in UAE in the first leg of the WC2010 qualification and we were so lucky to come out with a draw. Game against North Korea in Tehran was dreadful as well. Again I am going by memory and I can be worng

How on earth can one possibly argue or discuss an issue with someone who is biased by his own admission ???

Ali Agha , Nooshi joonat , enjoy your anti Ali Daei sentiments...why should I or anyone else spoil your pleasure.

[maij]

stats dont show the whole truth.


- wins in official games - add 1 point
- wins in friendlies - no extra points
- losses in official games - reduce an extra point
- losses in friendlies - no reduction

- winning a higher ranked team - add points between 1 to 3 (depending on how far up the opponents rank is)
- draw vs a high ranked team - add between 1-2 points (with 2 for very high ranking teams)
- losing to a lower ranked team - reduce 1-3 points (depends on the opponent's rank. the lower, the more points reduced)
- drawing vs. a lower ranked team - reduce 1 point

- a win with more than 3 goals margin (or 3 goals scored) - add 1-3 points (depending on the rank of opponents)
- a loss with more than 3 goals margin (or 3 goals conceded) - reduce 1-3 ( .... the same as above)

- winning AWAY from home - add 1 point
- losing AT HOME - reduce an extra point

- wins against european teams - add between 2-3 points (depending on ranks)
- losses against europeans - reduce between 0-1 (depending on ranks)
- ... same thing against african teams and south aemrican ones, ... etc etc

once you decide on each point allocation, then you can rate a coach's true record.

For a person who claims that stats does not show the whole truth , you surely over extended yourself into providing your own data and formula , Doc!!!

[Doctor DOOM]

yes, but obviously.
that's why we have to go through all those steps (add this much, reduce that much, ...etc ) to get the "stats" closer to the truth.
merely "1-0 win, 3 points" dont reflect the truth.

[Keano]

He also despises "color highlighted" and "bold" fonts and posts

[Hajagha]

Agha Majid, I told ya.

These young gentlemen have no idea what stat is.

One of them even comes up and say "how come Daei's stat is better? bcz I don't like him." How ironic this can be?

The other one comes up with a formula to make sure the life is more miserable for us than what it is now. I am sure if the results don't satisfy him, he is going to apply the number of times Park touched the ball once we lost to them...

aghayoon, get over it. The presented table is a "TM results" no body made any manipulation into it. If it doesn't satisfy you, well, you better get a day job that has nothing to do with the numbers.

As I said, the only question one can ask is "whether the difference between the numbers is meaningful (significant) or the numbers are too small to give you a meaningful conclusion. For example, Mansourian now has 100% winning record. Is it meaningful?

Agha majid "shoma beh bozorgavaritoon bebakhshid". These young gentlemen have too much testosterone (and probably Viagra) in their blood.

Cheers,

[maij]

Agha Majid, I told ya.

You certainly did , Reza Jan. No denying the fact

These young gentlemen have no idea what stat is.

One of them even comes up and say "how come Daei's stat is better? bcz I don't like him." How ironic this can be?

The other one comes up with a formula to make sure the life is more miserable for us than what it is now. I am sure if the results don't satisfy him, he is going to apply the number of times Park touched the ball once we lost to them...

aghayoon, get over it. The presented table is a "TM results" no body made any manipulation into it. If it doesn't satisfy you, well, you better get a day job that has nothing to do with the numbers.

As I said, the only question one can ask is "whether the difference between the numbers is meaningful (significant) or the numbers are too small to give you a meaningful conclusion. For example, Mansourian now has 100% winning record. Is it meaningful?

I think what is possibly clouds the thoughts is the Bias Factor. Interestingly enough it is the very subject that I will be covering in a few days time for a group of professional aviators. "The Tunnel Vision" as we refer to it in the industry , is a serious risk that can lead to catastrophe and financial crises at worst and need to be avoided at all cost.

Of course , when we talk about football , it is NOT the real life and such prejudice is not of any serious significance alas a bias is definitely a show stopper in any meaningful argument. No point of arguing with a person with a perceptual bias, unless one has a lot of "Howsele"

Agha majid "shoma beh bozorgavaritoon bebakhshid". These young gentlemen have too much testosterone (and probably Viagra) in their blood.

Cheers,

I could do with a bit of that myself