Iran's Group- Discussion

[CHaMiLLionaire]

Group A South Korea, Iran, Uzbekistan, Qatar, Lebanon- What are your thoughts??

Here is the full match schedule:
Uzbekistan vs Iran - 3rd June 2012
Iran vs Qatar- 12th June 2012
Lebanon vs Iran- 11 Sept. 2012
Iran vs Korea- 16 Oct 2012
Iran vs Uzbekistan 14 Novembor 2012.
Qatar vs Iran- 4th June 2013
Iran vs Lebanon- 11 June 2013.
Korea vs Iran- 18 June 2013

IMO- it is a very doable group. Iran's first game against Uzbekistan(they are missing 5 key players including AFC player of the year Djeparov due to suspension). Then we play home to Qatar which is a must win, and away to Lebanon which is also another must win. Another win vs Lebanon at home, and a draw in both the qatar and Korea game should see us through to the WC. That way the last game vs Korea will just be meaningless in order to see who will top the group.

I am very optimistic, even though its a hard group- the schedule is what makes it easy for us to qualify. The first three games are a must win for Iran- and if we take these 9 points in the first 3 games then we should be guaranteed qualification by as much as 90%.

Iran chikareshh mikonee...sooooorakh sooooorakhesh mikone!

[Martin-Reza]

Well, those must wins are worrying me a bit, wouldn't be the first time we screw them up. But basically I agree with you.

Overall I think 6 points against Lebanon, 4 points against Uzbekistan and Qatar and 2 points against South Korea should get the job done. We need to be patient this time though. Had we simply accepted the 1-1 against KSA in Tehran last time instead of thinking of winning the game late, we would have been through, so no panicking this time!

I hope we can have a friendly against Azerbaidjan, Kazakhstan or some team like that in late May to prepare for Uzbekistan. As all of the leagues will be finished by early or middle of May, we could have a full friendly match then.

[Nokhodi]

As an Iranian I've learnt to expect the worst. I can never be comfortable about any of the games and I probably have the damaged heart of a 85 year old heart attack victim because of this team.

Having said that here is what I think will happen:

Uzbekistan vs Iran - 3rd June 2012: Iran wins 2-1
Iran vs Qatar- 12th June 2012 - Iran ties 1-1
Lebanon vs Iran- 11 Sept. 2012 - Iran wins 1-0
Iran vs Korea- 16 Oct 2012 Iran ties 1-1
Iran vs Uzbekistan 14 Novembor 2012. Iran ties 1-1
Qatar vs Iran- 4th June 2013 - Iran ties 1-1
Iran vs Lebanon- 11 June 2013. - Iran wins 2-0.
Korea vs Iran- 18 June 2013 - Iran loses 2-1

13 points in total which should be more than enough.
I worry about this team and its defense particularly during the first and last 10 minutes of every game.

[Doctor DOOM]

Having Uzbekistan, Qatar and Lebanon in the group means short distances for our away journeys which sets us apart from our direct competition in the group, South Korea.

Not trying to pre-judge anything. But by going over the history and the quality of the teams in our group, I think Korea's advance is pretty much highest among the rest of the teams. I'm not discounting iran or uzbeks, mind you. But am just being realistic. and I'm also leaving aside some bizarre and unforeseen twists in fate. that makes uzbekistan our main challenger to get the second spot.

Given Uzbekistan’s predicament in their first game with suspension of 5 of their players who deliberately tried to get yellow cards in their group games, in one of our most crucial group games we may yet be provided a great chance to get an away win from one of the stronger teams in the group. And given our following home game and then the third game against Lebanon, it wouldn’t be too much of a wishful thinking to think we stand a very good chance to get 9 points from our first 3 games. Should this happen, this would mean 50% of the job already done.

Will Quieroz exploit the Uzbek situation and go for the kill in our first game? Or will he keep it sedate and stick to the conventional rule of “aim for winning home games and draw the away ones”? I am not sure what will be his strategy. But all I hope is that he doesn’t leave things for too late in the campaign, given our last rapid-fire 3 match-days and the ultimate game away to South Korea. Our memory is still fresh from the last World Cup 2010 qualifiers, leaving things too late, with our last game away to the very same South Korea.



this is a marvelous opportunity for us.
imagine getting more than half the points needed for direct qualification ( I think 15-16 would do it for us) out of your first 3 games.
that means the remaining 5 games to get another 6-7 points (allowing for a couple of home games wt uzbeks and lebanese)

[KeonKish]

As an Iranian I've learnt to expect the worst. I can never be comfortable about any of the games and I probably have the damaged heart of a 85 year old heart attack victim because of this team.

Having said that here is what I think will happen:

Uzbekistan vs Iran - 3rd June 2012: Iran wins 2-1
Iran vs Qatar- 12th June 2012 - Iran ties 1-1
Lebanon vs Iran- 11 Sept. 2012 - Iran wins 1-0
Iran vs Korea- 16 Oct 2012 Iran ties 1-1
Iran vs Uzbekistan 14 Novembor 2012. Iran ties 1-1
Qatar vs Iran- 4th June 2013 - Iran ties 1-1
Iran vs Lebanon- 11 June 2013. - Iran wins 2-0.
Korea vs Iran- 18 June 2013 - Iran loses 2-1

13 points in total which should be more than enough.
I worry about this team and its defense particularly during the first and last 10 minutes of every game.

we should roll over qatars face if we have Andranik to replace P.nouri, P nouri sucks. I think we need to get out points from Uzbekistan qatar and lebanon and we should make it through if we tie with KOR

[Hadi]

we just struggled to draw against the fourth seeded team of our group...yet we need 6 points from them to ensure qualifications (basically we need 12 from Lebanon and Qatar together and 4 from Uzbekistan). no easy task with the current quality of our football.

[maij]

I have been around far too long to know that there is no such thing as easy group in the final round of World Cup qualifiers! However , that said , this draw seems like the closest Team Melli can get , on paper , to have a moderate path to qualification to Brazil in 2014.

There are many things to consider in these matches. There are always the ever-present concerns , like our good friends already mentioned.
All those easy teams that we think will be walkovers . I worry about that a lot.
The winning mentality of the coach, who has not shown that he goes for the jugular. Will he be brave , adventurous . conservative or will be the type that always calculates "what if" scenarios?
Will there be good preparations with camps and friendly matches , or will it be the usual Iranian disorganization and missed opportunities.
Will we see some new blood given chances , or we will stick with our old and slow familiar names?
How committed Carlos Queiroz will be to his job and Iran? Do not assume that he will be with the team all the way to Brazil. There are some interesting developments going on right now in Iran's Football that might affect the future of CQ working with TM.

These are a few of the questions that determines the ultimate fate of Team Melli.

Technically speaking . Iran still has many problems in all the lines from goalkeeping and defense to the forward line. The only line that I am so comfortable with and have quite a handsome number of player ready for the job , is the midfield. The most worrying , naturally , is the defense. In order to improve the quality of the team and patch up the defenses , CQ needs to work hard and close with the team.

I have a feeling that Uzbekistan and Iran might pip Korea for the two top spots.

[zzgloo]

Salam be Hamegee....
....
It realy should n't matter who we play.......here is where QC values should come to the rescue....,supposedly a better forign coach, which I am a believer he is.......rescue not in a sense that he would do miracles and make us over achive...but only help us not to underachive....help us not to have those usual TM slump periods....those lapses we have gotten used to.....
....
QC just said after the draw,that : "" we can not relax..and preparation is the name of the game,because that is the only thing in our control "".
....
IRAN & S.Korea are favorits to advance from our group by all odds makers...,I am a firm believer,QC is the right coach...and his main job is to do what is expected of us by the odds makers, nothing more.

[Doctor DOOM]

davoud had this little stats on uzbeks in the football forum:

Team	GP	W	D	L	GF	GA	+/-	Pts
I.R. IRAN	6	3	3	0	17	5	12	12
QATAR	6	2	4	0	10	5	5	10

KOREA REPUBLIC	6	4	1	1	14	4	10	13
LEBANON	6	3	1	2	10	14	-4	10

UZBEKIS'N

6

5

1

0

8

1

7

16

Largest Win:
Iran 6-0 ( vs Bahrain)
Qatar 4-0 (vs Indonesia)
South Korea 6-0 (Lebanon)
Lebanon 3-1 (vs UAE)
Uzbekistan 3-0 (vs Tajikistan)

Biggest Loss:
Iran – None
Qatar - None
South Korea 1-2 (vs Lebanon)
Lebanon 0-6 (vs South Korea)
Uzbekistan - None

for example uzbeks won 5 games in a group that had japan and kuwait in it. that makes them a tough team. especially since they allowed only 1 goal. at the same time, they scored only 8 which means they struggle to score goals and are not very effective.

or lebanon, despite qualifying has struggled to score goals (10) while letting others score against them freely (14).

qatar has the most draws (4)

and juxtaposing the above with the fact that 5 of their players are suspended, can anyone find out how many of these 5 players are their defensive players?
from the looks of it their success is more for not conceding goals than scoring them. and if some of their main defenders are suspended, then CQ has no business to keep a "safe & conservative" team for the first game which has provided us with a massive chance of getting a win in a very tough away tie.

[K. Nader]

The following are the suspended players and their corresponding positions on the field:

1. Server Djeparov (MF)
2. Sanjar Tursunov (MF)
3. Shavkat Mulladjanov (DF)
4. Vagiz Galiulin (MF)
5. Islom Tuhtahujaev (DF)

Given a healthy Iranian side, we should be able to control the midfield and push the ball forward. That being said, the speedy Uzbeks can be extremely dangerous during counter-attacks, especially with their two talented forwards, Maksim Shatskikh and Alexander Geynrikh.

[Doctor DOOM]

Thanks nader jan.

so it is the uzbeks' strength that is affected by the suspensions. great news for us

I think 2 defenders and 3 mids missing from their main squad is one of those opportunities we would never get. and if we have learned anything from the last campaign where we started slowly and kept a slow pace of gathering points (which eventually got us into trouble), I think CQ has no way but to field an attacking team to exploit this.

another advantage we stand (IF we go for the win) is most probably by the time we meet korea in TEHRAN, we could (should) be in a commanding position in the table (with 3 wins out of 3 hopefully) which puts that extra bit of pressure on the koreans to close the midway of their campaign with enough points. and even if this one splits the points, then with another win in our 5th matchday we shd be in a very comfortable position.

third advantage is given uzbek's visit to korea and a possible loss there, this kind of start for us puts enough distance between us and them to put them on the back foot for the rest of the campaign.

I guess it all hinges on a winning start.

[Doctor DOOM]

Thanks to Saeed-noro for digging out the info now we know:

http://www.transfermarkt.de/de/usbek...haft_3563.html


give a look to their team, i also checked this right after the draw, and i noticed following:

• Shavkat Mullazhanov (26, Central Defender, 18 caps, no goals) - Al Ahly Sports Club (Qatar) - worth 150.000 €
• Sanzhar Tursunov (25, Right Middlefield/Wing, alternativ left middlefield, 14 caps, 1 goal) - Alania Vladikavkaz (Russia) - worth 1.500.000 € (!)
• Server Djeparov (29, Central Middlefield/Playmaker, 80 caps, 17 goals, AFC Player of the Year &. Captain of Uzbekistan Nationalteam) - Al Shabab Riyadh (Saudi Arabia) - worth 2.500.000 € (!!!)
• Islom Tukhtahujaev (22, Defender, 18 caps, no goals, also U23, U21, U20 experience) - Lokomotiv Tashkent (Uzbekistan) - worth 200.000 €
• Vagiz Galiulin (22, Left Wing/middlefield/Striker, 8 caps, no goals) - Sibir Novosibirisk (Russia) worth 450.000 €

He must have gone through some effort to get the data. and it IS quite useful.

to begin with I think most of the players missing are their main players as 4 of the 5 players are their legionnaires. so that makes the uzbek team more vulnerable and perhaps less experienced. looks like their flanks especially as we see full backs and a central defender. that provides great chance for heidari/mahini/pouladi/... joining in the attack.

secondly, with their captain missing, I assume they'd have a rough time conducting the midfield, which is the key area where we can impose our game on them and start our attacks and offense from.


The more we find out and look into the shape of the uzbek team, the more I am convinced this is one of those very RARE opportunities gifted to us and I doubt we'd ever get such a chance to get the perfect start to a WC campaign.

[Mansoor]

doostan, are you aware of the fact that Uzbeks without those 5 players defeated Japan in Japan? I know both teams were qualified already but that match did effect the seeding and I don't think Japan was taking easy in it's official home match. Regardless, any win in any situation at Japan explains the 5 players were not "that" important as some are describing.

Uzbek is the most favored team in this group to advance not Korea. In prelim, they won 5 out of 6 matches, only with one tie against Japan. Japan was down 0-1 in that match till 65th min. Uzbeks were one goal away from winnnin 6 out of 6 in a group that included Japan and North Korea.

The player that Iran should fear the most is available for the match and that is Maksim.

I am sure any suspension of any starting player effects the team but I don't think it will be the deciding factor. Uzbeks will still play at home with a very strong squad.

[Martin-Reza]

^ You are absolutely right Mansour, a draw in Tashkent would certainly be a great result.

Maxim Shatskikh and Aleksander Geynrikh are a deadly combo upfront. In the back they are very solid anyways and with Nesterov they have a reliable keeper. Their midfield might be weakened by the absence of Server Djeparov, but they still have some decent midfielders left, such as Timur Kapadze or Viktor Karpenko.

[Doctor DOOM]

^
mate, I would hardly call them "deadly combo" if the entire team has only managed to score 8 goals (how many of those 8 goals have these 2 scored??)
I'd be more worried about their defense rather than offense. and them missing 2-3 of their main defenders is one gift horse we shd not pass up on.



well, mansour brings up a good point. however it still doesnt change the fact that japan didnt need the points of that game.
some even say they may have even wanted to avoid Iran which was flying high (do note the highest goal scoring team of the qualifiers IS a major factor for coaches to worry about) as opposed to south korea who were struggling and didnt really convince their fans.

I am sure had japan needed the point or the points of their game we'd have seen a totally different japan.


besides, even if we go by this new theory, I still say we shd go for the win and not a draw. simply because if we make the uzbeks into some massive giants, then we stand a better chance of getting a 3 points out of the tie when many of their starting line up are missing .... rather than waiting for their full roster that is feared to be super-duper strong (who may even beat us in the tehran return game!!)

all that said, our objective of winning in tashkent shd not change
choose whatever theory & reasoning, ... ironically the objective & target still stays the same: we MUST get the win in tashkent
either becoz we meet them at their weakest or becoz we may end up losing to them in the return leg with the return of 5 more extra strong players.