What Scenarios Iran Goes Through?

[Bessos]

^
So the only way to fail to advance is:

- China beats us by a goal margin of 2 or more.

- China beats us or ties us, while Syria beats Qatar.


I just realized that China can still advance, if they win against Iran and have a certain result from the Qatar - Syria match.

[Bi-honar]

^
So the only way to fail to advance is:

- China beats us by a goal margin of 2 or more.

- China beats us or ties us, while Syria beats Qatar.


I just realized that China can still advance, if they win against Iran and have a certain result from the Qatar - Syria match.

Yeah, China are definitely not out mathematically bro. But if Syria manages to get at least a point from Qatar, then China will be out .

The way we will fail to advance:

1 - We lose to China by a two goal margin or more: 100% failure, regardless of what happens in the other match.

2 - We lose to China by one goal: 67% chance of failure (i.e. only of Syria tie or beat Qatar)

3 - We tie China: 33% Chance of failure (i.e. only if Syria beat Qatar)

I'm putting the odds for that match at 33% Qatar Win - 34% Draw - 33% Syria Win

[KC McElroy]

Yeah, China are definitely not out mathematically bro - not at this point anyway. But if Syria manages to get at least a point from Qatar, then China will be out before our kick-off.

The way we will fail to advance:

We lose to China by a two goal margin or more: 100% failure, regardless of what happens in the other match.

We tie China: Roughly 35% Chance of failure (i.e. only if Syria beat Qatar - I'm putting the odds for that match at 33% Qatar Win - 33% Draw - 33% Syria Win)

The last games of the group aren't played at the same time?

[Bi-honar]

The last games of the group aren't played at the same time?

Yeah they are KC jaan - sorry about that and thanks for the correction.

Fixed the post and need to fix the article on the front page too.

[ali alipour]

These are ALL the scenarios under which we can still secure a quarterfinals spot (starting from the worst case):

We lose to China: As long as we don't lose by a goal margin of 2 or more, we will still go through as the 2nd team IF Qatar beat Syria (approx odds to advance 30%).

We tie China: We will go through as the 2nd team as long as Syria don't beat Qatar (approx odds to advance 65%).

We beat China: Odds to advance 100%

* We will go through as the 1st team IF Syria beat Qatar with a one or two goal margin or exact score of 3-0 (approx odds to finish 1st 30%)

* Under any other scenario, we'll go through as the 2nd team

I think Iran will only come 1st if Syria beats Qatar by exactly a 2 goal margin. This is because the tie breaker when 3 teams are equal on points is goal difference in the games that they have played each other. So with a 1 goal victory Syria's goal difference would be -1, Iran's at 0 and Qatar at +1. If Syria wins by 2 than all 3 will be at 0. Then the tie breaker will be overall goal difference where Iran can come first if they beat China by more than 2.

[Bessos]

I think Iran will only come 1st if Syria beats Qatar by exactly a 2 goal margin. This is because the tie breaker when 3 teams are equal on points is goal difference in the games that they have played each other. So with a 1 goal victory Syria's goal difference would be -1, Iran's at 0 and Qatar at +1. If Syria wins by 2 than all 3 will be at 0. Then the tie breaker will be overall goal difference where Iran can come first if they beat China by more than 2.

Iran's goal difference in this case is +1.

If Qatar loses to Syria by 1 goal, their GD will be 0 (thus lower than Iran's).

Syria's GD will be -1 if it wins by a 1 goal margin.

Therefore Iran will top the group by beating China, if Syria also beats Qatar (by a goal margin of 1 or 2)

[ali alipour]

Iran's goal difference in this case is +1.
If Qatar loses to Syria by 1 goal, their GD will be 0 (thus lower than Iran's).
Syria's GD will be -1 if it wins by a 1 goal margin.
Therefore Iran will top the group by beating China, if Syria also beats Qatar (by a goal margin of 1 or 2)

I think that if all 3 teams finish at 6 points Iran's goal difference will be 0 no matter what. Because Iran beat Syria by 2 and lost to Qatar by 2 so when the tie breaker is concerned it's 0. But if Syria beat Qatar by 2 than the results vs China will matter.

[Bessos]

I think that if all 3 teams finish at 6 points Iran's goal difference will be 0 no matter what. Because Iran beat Syria by 2 and lost to Qatar by 2 so when the tie breaker is concerned it's 0. But if Syria beat Qatar by 2 than the results vs China will matter.

There you made the mistake... Iran did not lose to Qatar by 2. It lost by 1.

[Tehranto]

They don't like football that much but still they have more successful players in Europe than the rest of Asia combined. Yoshinori Muto, 22, their latest export has been the best Asian player in Europe this season. Their U-23 squad has two proven players in Europe too.



Tbh, their first game was poor. But good teams have a tendency to get off to a slow start and raise their game in their knockout matches. We shouldn't underrate them.

I hear baseball is on the decline in Japan, and football is rising to become number 1 sport.

[ali alipour]

There you made the mistake... Iran did not lose to Qatar by 2. It lost by 1.

Oh wow my bad I stopped watching after the second goal I had no idea. Then we have a decent chance to still finish 1st.

[teammelli91]

The bottom line, we have to beat China. No draws.

[persianfire]

I hear baseball is on the decline in Japan, and football is rising to become number 1 sport.

Judging by average league attendance figure, baseball is still far ahead of football in their country.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...sports_leagues

baseball - 28,248
football - 17,803