Statistic – Group with 6 Teams – we need 18+ Ponits

[bahbah]

i looked at the uefa-qualifiers with 6 teams (wc2014 & euro2016 and at the concacaf wc-qualifiers (1998 –*2014). in the uefa there are sometimes teams with 0 points and overall there are big differences in quality of the teams.
so the statistic of the concacaf-group should have more value.
20 points should be our goal in the current qualifiers.
i collected data from 21 groups and never a team with 20points was ranked third.
and we just look at the concacaf-groups 18points could be enough.
now we already have 4 ponits. 4 more wins and 2 draws could be enough.
2 wins against syria. 2 wins against china and uzbeks at home. an then just 2 draws in the away games in qatar, korea and uzebkistan.
UEFA
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CONCACAF
concacaf.png

[irani8perspolis]

18 points is easily attainable for us. Consider this predicition at the worst case scenario.\

v. Uzbekistan (D)
v. Korea (D)
v. Syria (W)
v. Qatar (D)
v. Uzbekistan (W)
v. China (W)
v. Korea (L)
v. Syria (W)

Which gives us 19 points.

[CHaMiLLionaire]

Good analysis.

Remember 3rd place is still alive, not that we should aim for that.

We need 15 points to be safe for third place, and 18 to basically qualify as 1 or 2.

The win at home, tie away rule will help us achieve this. But should we lose at home or away to either SK or UZB, we have Syria to bounce back again. Those two games against Syria are going to be frustrating as hell but we need 6 points.

[bahbah]

if would have beaten china today. then 2 wins against syria and just 6 more points could have been enough. i think thats why CQ wanted them so bad to go forward in the dying minutes. rememberd me of the game with lebanon before the away game in korea. we needed goals for better GD.

[bahbah]

third place would mean play-off. it could be UAE, JAPAN, AUS oder SA!

[ehsan singapore]

18 points is easily attainable for us. Consider this predicition at the worst case scenario.\

v. Uzbekistan (D)
v. Korea (D)
v. Syria (W)
v. Qatar (D)
v. Uzbekistan (W)
v. China (W)
v. Korea (L)
v. Syria (W)

Which gives us 19 points.

the key for us, we didnt lose today, even though we should have won, but now we are 4 points, i hope uzkenistan draw, this results are realistical and not over the moon

[iranghahreman]

this is a flawed analysis/comparison uefa groups have so much disparity in them
you have teams like germany and faroe islands in the same group
the disparity between teams like iran/korea and syria is not as big as that

in those scenarios the germans get all the points really easy and it looks like you need more than you actually do

[eerooni]

I dont know why people are worried??? China is effectively out! now we have to worry about 4 teams NOT 5, we took 2 points from them, so We are still perfect! we are sitting on top, we have 4 points out of 6 , we will do much better as we progress further deeper into the qualifiers, Im happy we took Qatar out on the first game, and neutralized china at home, we will be ready for the Uzbeks and the Koreans, this is a MARATHON people....

[bahbah]

uzbeks score.
a draw in uzbekistan is a must now!

[mehdi13]

Any points dropped against the teams that will most likely finish bottom 3 (china, syria, qatar) is bad news. Puts more pressure in the games against korea and uzbekistan. I dont understand why so many are content with 1 point in china. Remember it was too many draws that doomed us in 2010 qualifying.

[Camran khan]

The only team a loss would be acceptable against, would be South Korea. Worst case scenario, we should draw Uzbekistan away and beat them at home, worst case scenario. I expect us to beat them in Tashkent. We are more than good enough to do so, that is if our team gets their sh!t together until next game, not like they've been playing these 2 past games. If we play anything remotely like we did in the Asian cup or vs Sweden and Chile, we shouldn't have anything to worry about.