Serbia Nigeria Morocco Panama , which team do we want from pot 4

[BacheLot]

is Serbia really that good..!!? havent been following Euro qualification that much..!!

[MR.S]

is Serbia really that good..!!? havent been following Euro qualification that much..!!

they tied south Korea yesterday 1-1

[perspolis#1]

is Serbia really that good..!!? havent been following Euro qualification that much..!!

They are a big team.

Matic the CDM cleans up. Their CBs Ivanovic/Nastasic/Kolarov are well seasoned.

Their attackers like Tadic can do damage.

The problem would be our difficulty keeping any possession. Half of their players that do play in bottom of the table teams in Spain/England and the ones in Serbia are not necessarily better than ours but the ones I mentioned can counter us.

[Nokhodi]

A team like Serbia is slow enough that our TM would usually do well against them.
Its the speedy pressing teams we have issues with.

[rjafari]

A team like Serbia is slow enough that our TM would usually do well against them.
Its the speedy pressing teams we have issues with.

I think, like Bosnia last time, it would actually come down to luck. I agree I think in some situations TM could do well. Make it the 3rd game where we have to go all out and attack and leave ourselves exposed? I don't know.
Play in a game where we can go for a draw and counter I think we could do really well.

I'd still rather face Morocco or Panama. Have we all given up hope of a new zealand miracle?

[ehsan singapore]

I think, like Bosnia last time, it would actually come down to luck. I agree I think in some situations TM could do well. Make it the 3rd game where we have to go all out and attack and leave ourselves exposed? I don't know.
Play in a game where we can go for a draw and counter I think we could do really well.

I'd still rather face Morocco or Panama. Have we all given up hope of a new zealand miracle?

i have i dont think new zealand can beat peru in lima, they are very strong at home.

[eerooni]

i have i dont think new zealand can beat peru in lima, they are very strong at home.

New Zealand is toast in Lima!! Peru is a very tough opponent and they will destroy the Kiwis....

[teammelli91]

Nigeria beating Argentina 4-2 was fun to watch

[Shayan_91]

I would prefer Serbia or Panama.

IMO, we play decent against South-East-European teams. We showed that a few times in the last years against Montenegro, Bosnia (except 2014), Croatia (before 2006), Macedonia and Albania. I think our boys would respect Serbia much more than let's say Morocco and thus play a better game against them.

I don't know if it's an advantage or disadvantage that we just played Panama. Still, on paper they are definitely the weakest team among the four and I would prefer them over Nigeria and Morocco.

Nigeria and Morocco both have very strong squads with players from Real, Juventus, Arsenal, Ajax, Leicester City and many others in England and Spain (and Germany and Netherlands and Turkey etc.). Also, we haven't played Northern African teams for decades and I really don't think they are easy to play. And: our boys would probably rate them into the same level as Arab teams in AFC, thus underrate them and embarrass themselves.

Best thing which can happen to us Russia, Peru and Panama.

[saeed_noro]

i prefer:

1. Panama 2. Morocco 3. Serbia 4. Nigeria

[DireStraits]

We can be in the same group as in the last world cup with Argentine and Nigeria and a though team instead of Bosnia. It really is no advantage that we are
in 3th seed.
My favorite group is Polland Switzerland Panama Iran.
1-Panama 2-moroco3-Serbia 4- Nigeria

[soniq]

have not looked into it in more detail but since no more than 2 UEFA teams are allowed per group the odds of getting Serbia is lower

[GolfePersique]

Iran record against north-African teams (post-revolution)
Iran 2-1 Algeria (1991)
Algeria 1-0 Iran (1991)
Iran 1-1 Egypt (2000)
Iran 4-0 Lybia (2005)
Iran 2-2 Tunisa (2012)

[saeed_noro]

50% we get an African team (Morocco / Nigeria) and 25% we get Serbia (and another European team of pot 2 or 1) and 25% we get Panama, but avoid mexico and get 2 European teams, or one European and South American team.

whatever happens. we must be in form. and fight for advancing.

[rjafari]

50% we get an African team (Morocco / Nigeria) and 25% we get Serbia (and another European team of pot 2 or 1) and 25% we get Panama, but avoid mexico and get 2 European teams, or one European and South American team.
whatever happens. we must be in form. and fight for advancing.

I forgot about Mexico in pot 2 good point, so actually based on those conditions for Serbia and Panama, the odds of getting either Morocco or Nigeria then conditionally become slightly higher - but i'm too lazy to do the math in expectation.
once the 3 pots are drawn we'll know the direct probability
but in expectation
morocco/nigeria are most likely - ends up slightly higher than 50% currently
panama after that
serbia after that
---
If we get 1 European team and 1 South American team
all will be likely at 25%
if we get Mexico - panama drops and we get 33% each on the remaining 3
similarly if we get 2 European teams, Serbia drops and we get 33% each on the remaining 3
---
EDIT: Ok I stopped being bored and did a quick back of the envelope calculation (someone please correct me if i'm wrong here)
EDIT2: no wait that's wrong too! Because the first two groups can't be paired in all 64 different ways (deleted)

EDIT3: See post below - figured it out!