Serbia Nigeria Morocco Panama , which team do we want from pot 4

[Leicester City]

Panama, because we already beat them!

[saeed_noro]

I forgot about Mexico in pot 2 good point, so actually based on those conditions for Serbia and Panama, the odds of getting either Morocco or Nigeria then conditionally become slightly higher - but i'm too lazy to do the math in expectation.
once the 3 pots are drawn we'll know the direct probability
but in expectation
morocco/nigeria are most likely - ends up slightly higher than 50% currently
panama after that
serbia after that
---
If we get 1 European team and 1 South American team
all will be likely at 25%
if we get Mexico - panama drops and we get 33% each on the remaining 3
similarly if we get 2 European teams, Serbia drops and we get 33% each on the remaining 3
---
EDIT: Ok I stopped being bored and did a quick back of the envelope calculation (someone please correct me if i'm wrong here)
Nigeria 28.57%
Morocco 28.57%
Panama 25%
Serbia 17.86%

EDIT:
last World Cup draw they first draw group headers than pot 2 team, but than the position for which group, which position.....than 3 and so on.., than 4....
If we get mexico from pot 2 (12,5% chance, we won´t face Panama anymore.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uqR9DiGII3U

[GolfePersique]

50% we get an African team (Morocco / Nigeria) and 25% we get Serbia (and another European team of pot 2 or 1) and 25% we get Panama, but avoid mexico and get 2 European teams, or one European and South American team.
whatever happens. we must be in form. and fight for advancing.

Mersi Agha Saeed for all your pot expertise input.

Of all those teams, I'd avoid Nigeria. Physically, it will be extremely hard to impose ourselves on them. We have the ability to handle Serbia, Morocco or Panama.

Overall we seem to match up better with Latin Americans (perhaps except Brazil) compared to Europeans, but you never know what CQ can take out of his magic box this time.

[rjafari]

I am very sure they will start with pot 4, than 3, than 2, than 1...so avoiding mexiko is very high (25% = the chance of getting Panama out of 4 teams we could get draw too.
i will watch youtube last World Cup how they did it..

Oh that's a good point too - I was basing this on 1 to 4, it is also super conditional on a ) how they do the pots and b ) if they draw a team does it go in First available group from A->H? I legit don't remember that and went on those assumptions.

I thought they did it Pot 1 -> 4
and then A-> H
so for any team (say in pot 3) that is drawn (say for group C) if it can't go in Group C it goes in D and the next team then goes potentially to C (or E) and so on.

[saeed_noro]

I hope they will make the draw like last time. otherwise position 3 in the group have bad venues in total. just b3 position is good.
first group headers....
Then pot 4 team, than position AND group of this team...
then pot 3 team, than position AND group of this team....
then pot 2 team...and last position in a random group..

[saeed_noro]

[rjafari]

I hope they will make the draw like last time. otherwise position 3 in the group have bad venues in total. just b3 position is good.
first group headers....
Then pot 2 team, than position AND group of this team...
then pot 3 team, than position AND group of this team....

Agreed. Ok so I went back and for a sanity check cleared it all for myself. (and found this video on 2010 that I'm basing this on).
Based on 2010 Draw: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=amMAqNklRqw
Assumption 1: You fill Pot 1 teams first , then 2, then 3, then 4
Assumption 2: You then fill in order A->H in the first available group
Assumption 3: You randomly assign position Within the group - with Pot 1 teams taking position 1, and pot 2-4 randomly filling in the rest
In this scenario, there are 58 possible groupings after pots 1 and 2 are drawn (because south american teams cannot be in the same pot, so reducing that from a total of 64).
Of these 58, Iran can end up in any of them.
Of these 58 - Nigeria can also go in any of them
Of these 58 - Morocco can also go in any of them
Of these 58 - Panama can only go in 50 of them (8 combinations eliminated due to Mexico)
Of these 58 - Serbia can only go in 34 of them (eliminated due to 2 European teams)
Resulting in:
Morocco: 29% likelihood
Nigeria: 29% likelihood
Panama: 25% likelihood
Serbia: 17% likelihood

EDIT: Actually - that might not be right because the scenarios where Iran is not in a group with 2 European teams might not be as evenly distributed because of other European teams in Pot 3

[teammelli91]

I hope the social media idiots don't embarrass us again.

[GolfePersique]

Interestingly our first group match will be against seed 4 team. That will probably determine our chance of progression into the second round.

[inarsenewetrust]

wait so what percent chance do we have for each pot four opponent. ??

[naderb94]

1. Panama: We know how they play and this is their first WC. Nerves will be in play for them.
2. Morocco: Probably the weakest African team in WC, very inexperienced players on international level, lack of WC experience.
3. Nigeria: We know how they play, but they have new talented players like Iwobi and Inechnacho who could give us trouble.
4. Serbia: Always a gritty, tough European team. Similar to Bosnia from 2014

[inarsenewetrust]

1. Panama: We know how they play and this is their first WC. Nerves will be in play for them.
2. Morocco: Probably the weakest African team in WC, very inexperienced players on international level, lack of WC experience.
3. Nigeria: We know how they play, but they have new talented players like Iwobi and Inechnacho who could give us trouble.
4. Serbia: Always a gritty, tough European team. Similar to Bosnia from 2014

I would have to say on paper Tunisia are far weaker than morocco. Morocco actually have very talented players like Boufal ( Southampton), Hakimi ( Real Madrid), Hakim Ziyech ( Ajax), Belhanda ( ex schalke,nice, now galatasaray), Benatia( Juventus), Amrabat( on watford last year), Amrabat( feyenoord), Amine Harit ( Schalke), Dirar ( ex monaco now fener), Saiss ( Wolverhampton). A match with morocco would be very, very difficult. They have real quality players that could hurt us if they play as a team. I can see them becoming the African success story, in the mold of algeria in last WC.

Tunisia on the other hand have basically one legionairre in wahbi Khazri, and do not have as much talent(on paper) besides him. Not sure how they are in pot three.

[GolfePersique]

I would have to say on paper Tunisia are far weaker than morocco. Morocco actually have very talented players like Boufal ( Southampton), Hakimi ( Real Madrid), Hakim Ziyech ( Ajax), Belhanda ( ex schalke,nice, now galatasaray), Benatia( Juventus), Amrabat( on watford last year), Amrabat( feyenoord), Amine Harit ( Schalke), Dirar ( ex monaco now fener), Saiss ( Wolverhampton). A match with morocco would be very, very difficult. They have real quality players that could hurt us if they play as a team. I can see them becoming the African success story, in the mold of algeria in last WC.

Tunisia on the other hand have basically one legionairre in wahbi Khazri, and do not have as much talent(on paper) besides him. Not sure how they are in pot three.

Exactly.
I bet if he had players at those clubs many of our fans would have expected TM to go to quarters at least.
On paper we are the underdogs in this world cup, perhaps with exception of Panama.
Having said that, we have a potential to create problems for any team on a good day.

[inarsenewetrust]

Exactly.
I bet if he had players at those clubs many of our fans would have expected TM to go to quarters at least.
On paper we are the underdogs in this world cup, perhaps with exception of Panama.
Having said that, we have a potential to create problems for any team on a good day.

well no question we are better than the likes of Panama, other Asian teams except Japan. We are probably at the level of morocco,Costa Rica if we are being honest, and im fine with that for now

[saeed_noro]

to conclude, tunisia is less strong compared to morroco. this is right.

morocco did something, which we did not do. they finished their Group without conceding a Goal. specially a super Performance in the last game, where ivory coast needed a victory to qualify. but they had nothing to say. morocco has a good defense, and structure, same as our Team melli. but they finished without conceding. fifty fifty game, still i prefer them after morocco.