2018 Fifa World Cup Draw Simulator

[rjafari]

To figure out the exact probabilities - we'd need to be clear on a couple of the assignment rules - anyone remember how this has gone in the past/will go now?

We know they'll assign the pots in order. Russia goes in Group A.
Now - do we (a) Draw a team at random from the pot then B assign it to the first available pot it can go to? or (b) determine what groups a team can go in then randomly draw that? or
(c) randomly draw a spot then randomly draw teams that can go in that spot?

I think it's A but it could be B? - A causes some interesting dependencies to determine the exact probabilities and figure out if the simulator is working correctly.

Scenario: Iran is in Group C - we are drawing pot 4 teams. so group A has 4 teams, group B has 4 teams, everyone else has 3 teams.
Next team drawn - Japan. Does Japan now go to Group D? or draw from the rest? or do they get replaced and keep randomly drawing until group C gets a team it can get?

[perspolis#1]

To figure out the exact probabilities - we'd need to be clear on a couple of the assignment rules - anyone remember how this has gone in the past/will go now?

We know they'll assign the pots in order. Russia goes in Group A.
Now - do we (a) Draw a team at random from the pot then B assign it to the first available pot it can go to? or (b) determine what groups a team can go in then randomly draw that? or
(c) randomly draw a spot then randomly draw teams that can go in that spot?

I think it's A but it could be B? - A causes some interesting dependencies to determine the exact probabilities and figure out if the simulator is working correctly.

Scenario: Iran is in Group C - we are drawing pot 4 teams. so group A has 4 teams, group B has 4 teams, everyone else has 3 teams.
Next team drawn - Japan. Does Japan now go to Group D? or draw from the rest? or do they get replaced and keep randomly drawing until group C gets a team it can get?

In the example you drew up Japan would go to Group D.

[rjafari]

In the example you drew up Japan would go to Group D.

great, thanks. So they draw the team from the pot and slot them in the first available group ordered A->H.

[KhodadadAzizi]

Germany
Colombia
Iran
Morocco

[Doctor DOOM]

First attempt and I got this one:
[ATTACH]17585[/ATTACH]

lol.


Plz turn off your TV and digital devices on the day of the draw.

In fact we all will chip in to send you & ATA to a lovely holiday on a remote island somewhere near Madagascar.




I got:
Poland
Colombia
Iran
Morocco

mehhh!
I see a whole lot of us have got Morocco as the 4th team. Given that 3 of the 4th seeds are asians, chances of this is very very high.
CQ must definitely try to play egypt, tunisia, algeria, ... in the near future

[rjafari]

Well - if we get Serbia as a pot 4 team, the highest likelihoods are Panama, Morocco, Nigeria, followed by Serbia (lower due to a few conditional scenarios where two European teams in Pots 1 and 2 are drawn together with us).
If New Zealand squeaks in, then it's an equal chance 4 ways.

I'd be ok with any except Nigeria.

[ehsan singapore]

one good thing about group of death for us, we will have better friendlies and preparation cause media will kill the iff if they dont.

[Nokhodi]

Lol. I got:
ARGENTINA
SPAIN
IRAN
NIGERIA
That would be a fun but painful group.
I actually think we match up well against all of them. Teams that love possession and move slowly are TM's khorak.
Its the fast teams I worry about.

[Dubxl152]

Poland
Uruguay
Iran
Morocco

[KeonKish]

I keep getting nigeria from pot 4.

that would be horrible

[Omid177]

Belgium
England
Iran
Nigeria

Nigeria is the only team from pot 4 that I would like to avoid. Not only are they the best team in Africa right now, they also won't underestimate us anymore because of 2014. Serbia and Panama would be awesome.

[Soosk]

No way serbia! they would be real tough. Of all 4 teams we can get from pot 4, morocco and panama are our best chance for 3 points.

Belgium
England
Iran
Nigeria

Nigeria is the only team from pot 4 that I would like to avoid. Not only are they the best team in Africa right now, they also won't underestimate us anymore because of 2014. Serbia and Panama would be awesome.

[Pedram123]

Germany

Switzerland

Iran

Nigeria

[Omid177]

No way serbia! they would be real tough. Of all 4 teams we can get from pot 4, morocco and panama are our best chance for 3 points.

Serbia will underestimate us and go for attack. Also I watched their match against Austria and they aren't special.

[naderb94]

From Pot 4, we want Panama or Morocco 100%

Serbia or Nigeria is the worst case scenario especially Serbia.
I personally think Iran vs Morocco would be very fun to watch