Soccer Statistics: FiveThirtyEight says Group B is hardest group, Iran has 27% chance

[versusdamon]

I think this is fair view on our groups
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...d-cup-history/

Group B is projected to be the strongest in the tournament, according to FiveThirtyEight’s Soccer Power Index, and will be headlined by an early game between old rivals Portugal and Spain, which will face off for just the second time at a World Cup. The Iberian Peninsula neighbors met for the first time in 2010, when the Spaniards won 1-0 on their way to the country’s first ever World Cup victory. And the duo could meet again on the grandest stage of them all: They have the highest combined chance of making the final of any two teams in the same group.

We are considered slightly better than Morocco and have a 27,5% chance of advancing. Sounds reasonable.

Except for Iran, only Japan seems to have chances to advance.

[persianfire]

According to this article, the Group A is the weakest between the 1986 and 2018 WC but Saudi Arabia has only 14.2% chance.

[ehsan singapore]

According to this article, the Group A is the weakest between the 1986 and 2018 WC but Saudi Arabia has only 14.2% chance.

that is high, i would give them less than 10%

[Leicester City]

They pretty much hoed all the Asian countries except Saudi Arabia (but we know why $$$)

[teammelli91]

Poloz and Kokorin will wreck this team in the first match. Even with the Syrian Omars they wouldn’t be able to beat Russia.

And then they’ll have to run away from the vampire against Uruguay

Not to mention Egypt! That team is very good and full of European based stars.

[Hadi]

I think this is fair view on our groups
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...d-cup-history/



We are considered slightly better than Morocco and have a 27,5% chance of advancing. Sounds reasonable.

Except for Iran, only Japan seems to have chances to advance.

i don't know what calculator they are using but there is no way we have a 27% chance of qualifying.

Our chances are probably less than 10%

[versusdamon]

No offense intended, but they surely made more reasonable calculations than you.

Putting it into a very simple frameset, 10% chance of advancing basically means that out of 10 simulated group phases we only go through one time. That is not realistic. We are about the same level as Morocco. So at least in 50% of the cases we should be on the 3rd place.

It is actually simple: give probabilities to all scenarios of the 6 games that are played. If we just look at Iran:

Probabilities are win-tie-lose (and just my assumptions here)
Iran - Morocco 35% - 35% - 30%
Iran - Portugal 15% - 35% - 50%
Iran - Spain 10% - 25% - 65%

Very roughly (I can add the calculations if wanted), % not necessarily add up to 100%

Iran winning all three games (9 points): 0,525 %
Iran winning any two games, tieing one (7 points): 3,0625%
Iran winning any two games, losing the other (6 points): 5,6125%
In these cases we are usually qualified (sometimes 6 points are not enough, but that happens not that often).
=> 10% chance of advancing for sure.

Iran tieing two games, winning the wird (5 points): 5,6%
Iran win/ties/loses one game (4 points): 19,675%
In these cases we might qualify, depending on the other results.
=> 25% chance of advancing conditional on the other results.

Iran winning one game, losing two others (3 point): 15,8%
Iran tieing any two games, losing the third (2points): 14,9625%
Iran tieing one game, losing the other 2 (1 point): 21,95%
Iran losing all games (0 points): 9,75%
In these cases we are usually not qualified (I think there is one rare constellation where you can qualify with 3 points but not caring about that one)
=> 65% chance of not advancing for sure.

Let's say that in 50% of the cases in the 4 or 5 point scenario we qualify, makes 10% + 12,5% = 22,5% of us qualifying by my calculations. You can interpret it as "if we simulate the group phase 4 times, Iran will probably be 2nd in one of the four cases and qualify".

Or as a ranking, Iran becoming (roughly):
1st: 3%
2nd: 20%
3rd: 37%
4th: 30%

[BacheLot]

Id take those chances
I woulda guessed about 12-20% max

That number could rise or fall by about 10% depending how well we fair in our preparations.
Nothing scientific about my calculations, mostly realistic look from my point of view

[shahabGAOL]

I see that Portugal not play well in the EURO2016 and Spain had also bad start in the EURO2016. 27,5% chance of advancing for Iran , I want to say you never know in football what can happend. If we really play well and we have win Morocco then we can draw Spain and in best case we win Portugal. All is possible in football we have one of the best Iranian generations.

[Hadi]

No offense intended, but they surely made more reasonable calculations than you.

Putting it into a very simple frameset, 10% chance of advancing basically means that out of 10 simulated group phases we only go through one time. That is not realistic. We are about the same level as Morocco. So at least in 50% of the cases we should be on the 3rd place.

It is actually simple: give probabilities to all scenarios of the 6 games that are played. If we just look at Iran:

Probabilities are win-tie-lose (and just my assumptions here)
Iran - Morocco 35% - 35% - 30%
Iran - Portugal 15% - 35% - 50%
Iran - Spain 10% - 25% - 65%

Very roughly (I can add the calculations if wanted), % not necessarily add up to 100%

Iran winning all three games (9 points): 0,525 %
Iran winning any two games, tieing one (7 points): 3,0625%
Iran winning any two games, losing the other (6 points): 5,6125%
In these cases we are usually qualified (sometimes 6 points are not enough, but that happens not that often).
=> 10% chance of advancing for sure.

Iran tieing two games, winning the wird (5 points): 5,6%
Iran win/ties/loses one game (4 points): 19,675%
In these cases we might qualify, depending on the other results.
=> 25% chance of advancing conditional on the other results.

Iran winning one game, losing two others (3 point): 15,8%
Iran tieing any two games, losing the third (2points): 14,9625%
Iran tieing one game, losing the other 2 (1 point): 21,95%
Iran losing all games (0 points): 9,75%
In these cases we are usually not qualified (I think there is one rare constellation where you can qualify with 3 points but not caring about that one)
=> 65% chance of not advancing for sure.

Let's say that in 50% of the cases in the 4 or 5 point scenario we qualify, makes 10% + 12,5% = 22,5% of us qualifying by my calculations. You can interpret it as "if we simulate the group phase 4 times, Iran will probably be 2nd in one of the four cases and qualify".

Or as a ranking, Iran becoming (roughly):
1st: 3%
2nd: 20%
3rd: 37%
4th: 30%

dude football isn't probability.

go and see our odds on betting sites and you will see my 10% is quite accurate.

[Paradigm]

Spain, Portugal and Morocco are very close lands if you look on a map. Not a lot of geographical variation in B. I like Japan's group.

[shahabGAOL]

Alireza Jahanbakhsh doing very well at AZ and he makes goals, why he could not make this against Morocco, Spain or Portugal?