With the Asian Cup coming around the corner for TM (and hopefully along much success), the period after that will usher in an upheaval for our roster and perhaps coaching staff as Iran eyes the 2022 World Cup. Thanks to the passion of our countrymen, investments of FFIRI, CQ and many other experts in Iran, we may have a roster with greater potential than any other we have seen in modern times. We know the 1998 WC team had some exceptionally talented players, as did the 2006 squad, as flawed as it was. Meanwhile the 2014 version of TM was perhaps the thinnest we had ever seen in terms of natural talent, but boosted by great coaching/discipline and team spirit. The 2018 team surely had more depth, but there are many notable players here who have been, or will be phased out of TM after the Asian Cup.
For the purposes of this analysis I'm looking at players in five lenses: 1) 2018 WC players being phased out of TM due to their age in 2022, 2) 2018 WC players who may still be considered for TM in 2022, 3) 2018 WC players a part of our 2022 core group, 4) other players who were considered for WC 2018, and finally, 5) young players who clearly have the talent to make our 2022 squad. Obviously, there are variable that will impact our 2022 team that we cannot account (continued emergence of diaspora players, injuries, breakthroughs, etc).:
1) From the group being phased out we're losing 1 keeper, 1 defender, 4 midfielders and 1 forward, all who will be age 33 and appear unlikely to hold a spot in TM. All four midfielders are traditional starters in TM, so we have a large gap here going forward.
2) From the list of borderline players we have 1 keeper, 5 primarily defenders and 2 forwards.
Based off what we know from categories 1 and 2, there are 14 positions up for grabs in our 23-man WC roster. These include 2 keepers, 6 defenders, 4 midfielders, and 3 forwards. What remains? That's our next category.
3) There is a core group of 8 players with the age, talent and expected career trajectory to anchor our 2022 roster. The "essential eight" include 1 keeper, 2 defenders, 3 midfielders, and 2 primarily forwards.
4) We also have six players that were borderline candidates for the 2018 WC squad (or emerged shortly after). 3 of them are defenders, in addition to 1 players that primarily plays midfield, and 2 forwards.
5) Finally, the most exciting category: the future. Without being able to fully grasp the depths of the diaspora or even domestic players, we have at least five players who are clearly in TM's future plans. They include 2 primarily defenders, 1 midfielder, and 2 primarily forwards.
To summarize: TM 2022 will have open spots for 2 keepers, 6 defenders, 4 midfielders, and 3 forwards. Currently, we have 1 keeper, 10 defenders, 2 midfielders, and 6 forwards who are in the conversation to fill these roles. I'm sure candidates will emerge for the open positions, but this rough analysis shows something many of us have suspected: Iran is producing TM-calibre players who are disproportionately attacking players, while we have a generation of midfielders who are retiring. It is also not clear how many of the potential 2022 midfielders are prepared to fill the shoes of TM starters such as Shojaei, Dejagah, Ebrahimi, etc. Are there undiscovered talents within Iran or the diaspora who will emerge for these midfield positions? Are there current players who will grow into these positions? Will forwards have to continue to play out of position in the midfield? Or will Team Melli suffer through a further decline of its midfield abilities? Will future game-day strategies have to revolve around "long ball" methods, connecting defenders to forwards, when our midfielders cannot do that job? This is the most pressing issue facing the future of TM's roster, regardless of who our next coach is.
Player lists for each category below, along with ages in 2022:
1) Phased out
MF - Shojaei - 38
MF - Ebrahimi - 34
MF - Amiri - 34
GK - Mazaheri - 33
DF - Montazeri - 38
FW - Ghoochannejhad - 34
MF - Dejagah - 35
2) Border line
DF/MF - Hajsafi - 32
DF - Pouraliganji - 30
DF - Cheshmi - 28
FW - Ansarifard - 32
DF - Khanzadeh - 31
FW - Taremi - 29
GK - Abedzadeh - 29
DF - Rezaeian - 32
3) Core
GK - Beiranvand - 29
MF - Torabi - 27
DF - Mohammadi - 28
MF - Ezatolahi - 25
FW/MF - Ghoddos - 28
MF - Jahanbakhsh - 29
DF - Hosseini - 25
FW - Azmoun - 27
4) Others
MF/FW - Gholizadeh - 26
DF - Moharrami - 26
DF - Naderi - 26
FW - Rezaei - 30
DF - Aghaei - 27
FW - Alipour - 27
5) New generation
FW/MF - Delfi - 22
FW - Sayyadmanesh - 21
MF - Shekari - 24
DF/MF - Noorafkan - 25
DF - Shariati - 22
For the purposes of this analysis I'm looking at players in five lenses: 1) 2018 WC players being phased out of TM due to their age in 2022, 2) 2018 WC players who may still be considered for TM in 2022, 3) 2018 WC players a part of our 2022 core group, 4) other players who were considered for WC 2018, and finally, 5) young players who clearly have the talent to make our 2022 squad. Obviously, there are variable that will impact our 2022 team that we cannot account (continued emergence of diaspora players, injuries, breakthroughs, etc).:
1) From the group being phased out we're losing 1 keeper, 1 defender, 4 midfielders and 1 forward, all who will be age 33 and appear unlikely to hold a spot in TM. All four midfielders are traditional starters in TM, so we have a large gap here going forward.
2) From the list of borderline players we have 1 keeper, 5 primarily defenders and 2 forwards.
Based off what we know from categories 1 and 2, there are 14 positions up for grabs in our 23-man WC roster. These include 2 keepers, 6 defenders, 4 midfielders, and 3 forwards. What remains? That's our next category.
3) There is a core group of 8 players with the age, talent and expected career trajectory to anchor our 2022 roster. The "essential eight" include 1 keeper, 2 defenders, 3 midfielders, and 2 primarily forwards.
4) We also have six players that were borderline candidates for the 2018 WC squad (or emerged shortly after). 3 of them are defenders, in addition to 1 players that primarily plays midfield, and 2 forwards.
5) Finally, the most exciting category: the future. Without being able to fully grasp the depths of the diaspora or even domestic players, we have at least five players who are clearly in TM's future plans. They include 2 primarily defenders, 1 midfielder, and 2 primarily forwards.
To summarize: TM 2022 will have open spots for 2 keepers, 6 defenders, 4 midfielders, and 3 forwards. Currently, we have 1 keeper, 10 defenders, 2 midfielders, and 6 forwards who are in the conversation to fill these roles. I'm sure candidates will emerge for the open positions, but this rough analysis shows something many of us have suspected: Iran is producing TM-calibre players who are disproportionately attacking players, while we have a generation of midfielders who are retiring. It is also not clear how many of the potential 2022 midfielders are prepared to fill the shoes of TM starters such as Shojaei, Dejagah, Ebrahimi, etc. Are there undiscovered talents within Iran or the diaspora who will emerge for these midfield positions? Are there current players who will grow into these positions? Will forwards have to continue to play out of position in the midfield? Or will Team Melli suffer through a further decline of its midfield abilities? Will future game-day strategies have to revolve around "long ball" methods, connecting defenders to forwards, when our midfielders cannot do that job? This is the most pressing issue facing the future of TM's roster, regardless of who our next coach is.
Player lists for each category below, along with ages in 2022:
1) Phased out
MF - Shojaei - 38
MF - Ebrahimi - 34
MF - Amiri - 34
GK - Mazaheri - 33
DF - Montazeri - 38
FW - Ghoochannejhad - 34
MF - Dejagah - 35
2) Border line
DF/MF - Hajsafi - 32
DF - Pouraliganji - 30
DF - Cheshmi - 28
FW - Ansarifard - 32
DF - Khanzadeh - 31
FW - Taremi - 29
GK - Abedzadeh - 29
DF - Rezaeian - 32
3) Core
GK - Beiranvand - 29
MF - Torabi - 27
DF - Mohammadi - 28
MF - Ezatolahi - 25
FW/MF - Ghoddos - 28
MF - Jahanbakhsh - 29
DF - Hosseini - 25
FW - Azmoun - 27
4) Others
MF/FW - Gholizadeh - 26
DF - Moharrami - 26
DF - Naderi - 26
FW - Rezaei - 30
DF - Aghaei - 27
FW - Alipour - 27
5) New generation
FW/MF - Delfi - 22
FW - Sayyadmanesh - 21
MF - Shekari - 24
DF/MF - Noorafkan - 25
DF - Shariati - 22
Roxanaz
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