Iran will qualify even if Iraq wins against Iran

[Preezy]

Iran still qualifies to the last round even if Iraq wins against Iran.


Current standings:

Iraq - 11 pts (5 played)
Bahrain - 9 pts (5 played)
Iran - 6 pts (4 played)


Upcoming games:

Iran vs Hong Kong
Cambodia vs Iran

Bahrain vs Cambodia
Bahrain vs Hong Kong

Hong Kong vs Iraq
Iraq vs Cambodia


Let’s assume that Iran, Iraq and Bahrain win these games.


Predicted standings:

Iraq - 17 pts (7 played)
Bahrain - 15 pts (7 played)
Iran - 12 pts (6 played)


Remaining games:

Iran vs Bahrain
Iran vs Iraq



Iran MUST WIN against Bahrain, which is the first game.

If Iran wins against Bahrain, then Iran is already qualified to the last round and this is why,

Standings:

Iraq - 17 pts (7 played)
Iran - 15 pts (7 played)
Bahrain - 15 pts (8 played)


The rules of qualification are the team with the best goal difference qualifies, on equal points.

Iran has a significant and superior goal difference to Bahrain and Iraq.

Right now, Iran has +14 goal difference while Bahrain only has +2, meaning that Iran will have the best and even better goal difference after winning against Hong Kong, Cambodia and Bahrain.

Therefore, Iran qualifies in second place.


Even if Iraq wins against Iran, the group standing will still be,

Iraq - 20 pts (8 played)
Iran - 15 pts (8 played)
Bahrain - 15 pts (8 played)

Because of goal difference.

Now, this is worst case scenario results.

Best case is Iran winning against Iraq which results in Iran winning the group.


Iran - 18 pts (8 played)
Iraq - 17 pts (8 played)
Bahrain - 15 pts (8 played)



Iran winning the group is completely in our own hands.


Only 4 out of 8 runner up teams will qualify to the last round.

However, since Qatar is currently winning their group and most likely will win it, as well as already being qualified to the World Cup as hosts, their spot in the next round will be given to the fifth best runner-up team meaning that 5 out of 8 runner-up teams will qualify.

Even if Iraq beats Iran, Iran still qualifies because 15 points will be enough to be a top 5 runner-up team.


Dragans job is extremely easy.

No disrespect to Hong Kong and Cambodia but Iran should beat them even without a coach considering the quality of the team.


3 out of 4 remaining games are home games for Iran. Only Cambodia is away.

There is no excuse to not win at least the first 3 games and qualifying.


The World Cup qualifiers were just postponed to 2021.

This means that,

1) Dragan has had a year to decide his tactics, analyzing the players, decisions on his coaching staff, etc.

2) Jahanbakhsh and Ghoddos get time to sort out their club situations and playing time which benefits the national teams performance in 2021.

3) Beiranvand gets european experience and improves which will be crucial for the remaining games.

4) Taremi most likely evolves as a player since he gets to play for Porto which is crucial for goal scoring potential in the remaining games.

5) Ezzatollahi gets time to sort out his club situation and playing time which is extremely important considering the lack of depth in midfield for Iran.

6) The pandemic has halted game time for our players which means lack of match fitness. This would’ve severely impacted the performance levels of Irans qualifier games and perhaps ruined our chances.

7) Perhaps the games in 2021 will allow fans again. This would be fantastic for Iran since the remaining games are mostly home games and it would do wonders with 100,000 fans supporting the national team.

[Abtin]

once again without queiroz, our qualification is down to agar va ama...

[Preezy]

once again without queiroz, our qualification is down to agar va ama...

There is no reason for anyone to respond like that if my post was read.

The purpose of my post was to clarify that the situation is much easier than others on this forum seem to think. I’ve read others saying that we have to win all of our games, but this is not necessary for qualifying.

When we had Carlos, we were in horrible situations where we had to win ALL remaining games against Asias best teams.

Your response is exactly why I made my post.

Iran has to win games to qualify either way. All they have to do is win their upcoming games. Games against Hong Kong, Cambodia and Bahrain. Only Cambodia is away.

If Iran can’t win these games then they have no business being in the World Cup. Everything is in our own hands.

[kapenak]

The issue is not that people think qualifying to the next round is harder than it really is.

I read through your post and, like all other TM fans, am glad to see that basically if we can muster a win against Bahrain at home we will most likely be through to the next round. Good news.

The issue is... that we are even talking about this. That you literally had to open a new thread, go through all the calculations (much appreciated, btw), and run the gamut, JUST to see if we can make it to the final round of WCQ.

I've been following TM very closely since our qualification to 98, and have to say this is a new low in recent memory. When was the last time we were even worried about not making it to the final round of WCQ?? And what a fall from grace! We go from our arguably most successful spells (2 world cup qualification, our best world cup showing, 7 years or so of losing only a handful of games, 3 of which were against Argentina, Bosnia, and Spain, etc. etc.) to this. And it's just such a shame, because this is one of most talented squads ever. We have European based players all over the pitch, and the guys are actually ambitious and hungry to perform. And the problem is very clear to see, and if you can't see it then I'm sorry you are just blind. It's incredible how within months of CQ leaving, we have such a fall. And now our team is in shambles, and we have to bring out our calculators and dust off our high school math textbooks JUST to give ourselves hope that we make the final WCQ stage.

That's the real issue.

[Preezy]

The issue is not that people think qualifying to the next round is harder than it really is.
I read through your post and, like all other TM fans, am glad to see that basically if we can muster a win against Bahrain at home we will most likely be through to the next round. Good news.
The issue is... that we are even talking about this. That you literally had to open a new thread, go through all the calculations (much appreciated, btw), and run the gamut, JUST to see if we can make it to the final round of WCQ.
I've been following TM very closely since our qualification to 98, and have to say this is a new low in recent memory. When was the last time we were even worried about not making it to the final round of WCQ?? And what a fall from grace! We go from our arguably most successful spells (2 world cup qualification, our best world cup showing, 7 years or so of losing only a handful of games, 3 of which were against Argentina, Bosnia, and Spain, etc. etc.) to this. And it's just such a shame, because this is one of most talented squads ever. We have European based players all over the pitch, and the guys are actually ambitious and hungry to perform. And the problem is very clear to see, and if you can't see it then I'm sorry you are just blind. It's incredible how within months of CQ leaving, we have such a fall. And now our team is in shambles, and we have to bring out our calculators and dust off our high school math textbooks JUST to give ourselves hope that we make the final WCQ stage.
That's the real issue.

There is no issue here. We faced Bahrain and Iraq away with a horrible squad and lack of planning because of Wilmots greed, uninterest and laziness.

We lost on a penalty and a last minute goal. Now imagine how much better we will play with a full squad and an engaged coach.

The only concern is people thinking we are in a bad situation.

Thank you for your apreciation of my post.

[roozan]

well I think we can get into the world cup, but how will we perform in the world cup. I want us to get out of groups with some wins and some goals

[Galactika]

well I think we can get into the world cup, but how will we perform in the world cup. I want us to get out of groups with some wins and some goals

if we have an easy draw like Japan had well then that's slightly possible. (Wc group stage draw)

[Ostad_Goosfand]

For this to happen we will need some help, there is nothing guaranteed with 15. 16 is the magic number. I will show you scenario if Iran has 15 points

there are 5 runner-up spots available

Lets look at each group

Group A:
China has 7 points with 4 games left. they will get 6 points from Maldives and Guam easily. Then they have Phillipines and Syria at home. 3 points is likely at home against phillipines and if not they get another chance. that puts them at 16 points. so lock them in above Iran

Group B:
Kuwait and Jordan have 10 points with 3 games remaining, 1 of those games is against each other, 1 is against Australia. Lets assume they both lose to Australia, but Jordan defeat Kuwait, or vice versa, that would put them at 13 points, with their last game being against Nepal/Chinese Taepei aka 3 points automatically. so ideally we need kuwait and jordan to tie, but if one wins, 16 points is a lock

That puts them at 16 points, lock them in above Iran

Group C

I will skip this analysis and assume Iran is 2nd with 15

Group D
Uzbek is 1st with 9 points and Saudi is 2nd with 8, but Saudi has 1 less game played and they play Uzbekistan at home. So let's look at Uzbekistan as 2nd with 3 games left.
Yemen away, then Singapore at home, then Saudi away. if they get 6 points from first 2 games they just need a tie against Saudi to get 16 points, again, uzbekistan are perennial chokers so 7/9 points will be difficult for them, so I will assume they finish at 15 points and lose to Saudi best case. but worse case they take care of business against yemen and singapore and then pull off a draw which gives them 16 and above Iran

Group E

Qatar has 13 and Oman has 12 with 3 matches left. Oman faces afghanistan, qatar, and bangladesh. if they beat afghanistan away, which they should, then over 16 points is a lock since bangladesh is awful. I am going to lock them in above Irans 15 points

Group F
Tajik and kryz are 2nd with 7 points and they each play Japan away and each other. they will not finish over 15 points. next

Group G
Most interesting group of all. Vietnam is practically locked into 1st but there is a hefty battle for 2nd, UAE is 4th but has 3/4 remaining games at home. Ideally Malaysia, Thailand, UAE steal points from each other, but it is very much possible one finishes with over 15. This is the group we should be most wary of.

Group H

last group, Korea will win this group, and there will be a 3 way battle with lebanon, turkmen, and north korea for 2nd. I dont see any of them getting above 15 points.

So in the worst case scenario, Iran would not qualify with 15 points. Yes a lot of things have to happen for that to be true, but it is not like I picked some massive upsets or anything. if Kuwait/Jordan tie, or if UAE/Malaysia steal points from each other or tie we are pretty much safe if we take care of business our first 3 games.

Personally, I don't see us even getting a draw against Iraq if we need points from that game, they have our number, and would be hungry to knock us out. we always choke vs Iraq...

[Preezy]

France

1994 - France didn’t even qualify to the World Cup.

1998 - France won the World Cup.

2002 - France, as defending champions came last in their World Cup group without scoring any goals.

2006 - France got silver by reaching the World Cup Final after losing on penalties.

2010 - France finished last in their World Cup group with 0 wins and scored only one goal.


Italy

2006 - Italy won the World Cup.

2010 - Italy finished last in their World Cup group with 0 wins.

2014 - Italy finished third in their World Cup group and didn’t even qualify to the knockout stage.

2018 - Italy didn’t even qualify to the World Cup.


What was our problems again?

[rdwrrr]

Yes countries have up and downs but;
Please don't compare Asia to Europe


2018 Italy came in second in group with Spain
got knocked out by Sweden
Sweden came in first in group with
Mexico, Germany and South Korea
got knocked out by England in Quarter finals

1994 France came in Third to Bulgaria and Romania in qualifiers
Bulgaria came in fourth place in 1994 World Cup
and Romania knocked out in quarter finals by Sweden

No comparison with Iran situation

[milad_b]

mate you got this all wrong ! The four best runners-up across all groups will advance to the World Cup qualifying third round . Even if we make it as runners-up in our group there is a good chance that we won't make it to next round with only 15 points.

China , saudi , south korea , oman , UAE, kuwait/jordan all have better chance of making it to next round than us. So we have to win all remaining games! END OFF!

[ehsan singapore]

Let 2022 drama start

[Babak agha]

If I remember correctly with both Branko and CQ we needed a last game (I even think away) win to qualify for the next round of the WCQ.
So when was the last time we were in this situation? Almost all the freaking time :P.

Does it mean that's a good thing? Hell no, there is a realistic chance that we won't even make it to the next round.

[Keano]

Our last heart attack in this round was during Branko, when we lost to Jordan in hone at Asadi stadium ad we were doomed to win all our remaining games away in Qatar(at the time one of the biggest trolls and time wasters of Asian football, and of course our return match against Jordan away.

I remember at the time many and many of members called the qualifiers for us, saying we’re officially out etc. Well Borhani and Hashemian’s goals saved us against Qatar away, and Nikbakht and Daei finished the Jordanians in their home before their King’s eyes.

Then with CQ when we lost against Lebanon, we went through the very same chaos and football fans impatience, however down the road we pulled it off nicely.

The moral of the story is that we’re used to this ordeal during our qualifiers. Rest assured we will advance to the next round. Mark my words!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Abtin]

I dont recall this during the 2018 WCQ with CQ? when did we struggle then?