World Cup Draw Probabilities for Iran

[Arian182]

See attached! Looks like a good chance we get Cameroon or Ghana

[Nokhodi]

Really interesting. So we will most likely get an African team in our group.

[Abtin]

I would very much like to see the math behind these calculations 😅

[Arian182]

It's pretty simple, it's based off the pot rules. You can't have more than 2 European teams in a pot, etc. Then you run it 10 thousand times, and see the frequency of who shows up.
The reason that USA has less likelihood than Denmark for instance, is that if the first team is European, and the second is also European, Serbia and Poland* must go into a group that only has 1 European team, which is more likely to include USA or Mexico. That was what happened last time when Iran ended up in the Spain and Portugal group instead of the team that was originally drawn, who got put in the next group because they were also euro.

[Abtin]

^ ah yes, I see. Damn I'm excited for tomorrow! 🙌🏼