Road to Olympics 2020 Tokyo

[Irannn]

I wanted to open a thread monitoring Olympic Qualifiers in all sports, today I had a reason for that because Iran qualified its first athlete for the Olympics.
I will update the first post with the list of qualified athletes

Archery:
Milad Vaziri (Men's Individual)

Athletics:
Hassan Taftian (Men's 100m)
Ehsan Haddadi (Men's Discus Throw)

Basketball:
Men's Team (12 players)

Boxing:
Danial Shahbakhsh (Men's 57kg)
Shahin Mousavi (Men's 75kg)

Cycling Road:
Men's Road Race and Individual Time Trial (1 quota)

Fencing:
Men's Team Sabre and Individual Sabre (3 quotas)

Karate:
Bahman Askari (Men's Kumite 75kg)
Sajjad Ganjzadeh or Zabihollah Poursheib (Men's Kumite +75kg)
Hamideh Abbasali (Women's Kumite +61kg)

Shooting:
Javad Foroughi (Men's 10m Air Pistol)
Mahyar Sedaghat (Men's 50m Rifle 3 Positions)
Hanieh Rostamian (Women's 10m Air Pistol)
Najmeh Khedmati (Women's 10m Air Rifle)
Armina Sadeghian (Women's 10m Air Rifle)
Fatehmeh Karamzadeh (Women's 50m Rifle 3 Positions)

Taekwondo:
Armin Hadipour (Men's 58kg)
Mirhashem Hosseini (Men's 68kg)

Volleyball:
Men's Team (12 players)

Wrestling:
Reza Atri (Men's Freestyle 57kg)
Hassan Yazdani (Men's Freestyle 86kg)
Yadollah Mohebbi (Men's Freestyle 125kg)
Alireza Nejati (Men's Greco-Roman 60kg)
Mohammad Ali Geraei (Men's Greco-Roman 77kg)
Amir Ghasemi-Monjazi (Men's Greco-Roman 130kg)

[Irannn]

Najmeh Khedmati became the first Iranian qualifying for the Olympics. of course in this sport the quota belongs to the NOC and not the athlete (which means Iran can send anybody else instead of her) but usually in Iran they send the same person who won the quota.

in shooting there were 6 chances to qualify. 2018 World Champs, four rounds of World Cup and finally the Asian Championship. this was the 2nd World Cup in China, we had a unlucky 3rd place finish in a women's pistol event in first world cup but here Khedmati was a bit lucky she finished 5th but top 4 were already qualified. and she won the quota.

[Paradigm]

You can get some general updates on https://www.japantimes.co.jp/tag/2020-olympics/

Iran should train vigorously for track & field... it has a lot of medal opportunities. I recall that fellow who won a nice silver in 2012 for throwing discs. How are the Iranian weightlifters doing nowadays?

[Irannn]

Today was the last day of Asian Weightlifting Championships, that was important because that was the last event in the first qualification window. I don't want to get into details but in new qualification rules we have 3 windows (each of them 6 months) and all weightlifters need to have at least "one result" in each of these periods to be eligible to qualify. they have to participate in 6 competitions in general but 4 of them (1 from each window plus the next best) will be counted.

all of our notable weightlifters participated in at least one competition. the only one missing was Saeid Alihosseini, I contacted him few weeks ago to make sure if he knows the qualification rules and fortunately he knew them. that's why he participated in Asian Championships despite being completely out of shame and his result was very poor. but at least that will keep him alive for the Olympics. of course he needs better results in his next competitions.

here is the list of our eligible weightlifters, nobody outside of this list can qualify for the Olympics and remember because of previous doping cases we can't qualify more than just 2 weightlifters and they can't be in the same weight. the number of participated events for each one is also mentioned here.

73kg: Hossein Soltani (1)
81kg: Mostafa Javadi (2), Masoud Chatraei (1), Ali Miri (1)
96kg: Kianoush Rostami (2), Sohrab Moradi (2), Reza Beiralvand (2), Amir Hoghoughi (2), Aref Khaki (1), Mohammad Zareei (1), Ayoub Mousavi (1)
109kg: Ali Hashemi (3), Kia Ghadami (2), Mohammad Reza Barari (1), Nima Aghaei (1)
+109kg: Ali Davoudi (3), Alireza Soleimani (2), Homayoun Teymouri (1), Saeid Alihosseini (1)

some of these guys only participated in non-Olympic weights, I listed the in the closest possible weight class but they have the option to change it. and I have to mention since Sohrab Moradi was injured. they just listed him in Tehran Grand Prix. that was a "no mark" for him which was enough to fulfill one of 6 required participations.

even though I listed all eligible weightlifters, I think it's very clear that most of these guys have absolutely no chance. and that's a sure thing we will use those 2 quotas in 96, 109 or +109. I think only 5 or maybe 6 weightlifters have a realistic chance. Moradi and Rostami at 96 (and maybe Beiralvand) Hashemi at 109 and Davoudi and Alihosseini at +109kg. and I can guess we will send one at 96 (Moradi or Rostami) and one at +109 (Davoudi or Alihosseini) to the Olympics.

Moradi and Alihosseini were my original picks but they are both injured now, and we have to see how fast they recover. Moradi is still the huge favorite for 96kg spot. but in +109kg the youngster Davoudi really has a good chance to improve and catch Alihosseini. he is just 20 and improving his records very fast. he is around 440kg now, with 10-15kg more he will be 2nd in the world only behind Talakhadze.

[_Navid_]

This really sucks that we only have 2 spots. It means we have already lost 2 or 3 medals in the next Olympics.

But in my opinion the 2 that we send therefore should be GOLD medal chances. Moradi if he recovers is a 100% must as his gold is nearly guaranteed and only Tian Tao could pose a danger. As much as I love Hosseini and think his career deserves an Olympic participation and medal I don't see a point of sending any one at 109+ as the best we can aim for is a silver medal. So I think maybe Ali Hashemi should be the 2nd one as he has won world champ gold medal before and he has a shot for gold in the Olympics?

[Adesor Vafaseya]

This really sucks that we only have 2 spots. It means we have already lost 2 or 3 medals in the next Olympics.

But in my opinion the 2 that we send therefore should be GOLD medal chances. Moradi if he recovers is a 100% must as his gold is nearly guaranteed and only Tian Tao could pose a danger. As much as I love Hosseini and think his career deserves an Olympic participation and medal I don't see a point of sending any one at 109+ as the best we can aim for is a silver medal. So I think maybe Ali Hashemi should be the 2nd one as he has won world champ gold medal before and he has a shot for gold in the Olympics?

Hashemi only became world Champion because Russians were banned, and IMO the competition was weak. I like Hashemi but with a strong competition, he may end up with a Bronze (MAX!). But who knows, he keeps getting better year by year...

[Adesor Vafaseya]

the only one missing was Saeid Alihosseini, I contacted him few weeks ago to make sure if he knows the qualification rules and fortunately he knew them.

That was great and very considerate of you!
Thank You!

[Irannn]

This really sucks that we only have 2 spots. It means we have already lost 2 or 3 medals in the next Olympics.

But in my opinion the 2 that we send therefore should be GOLD medal chances. Moradi if he recovers is a 100% must as his gold is nearly guaranteed and only Tian Tao could pose a danger. As much as I love Hosseini and think his career deserves an Olympic participation and medal I don't see a point of sending any one at 109+ as the best we can aim for is a silver medal. So I think maybe Ali Hashemi should be the 2nd one as he has won world champ gold medal before and he has a shot for gold in the Olympics?

yeah Ali Hashemi is a two time World Champion which is great but to be honest he won the gold in 2017 because the level was very low (9 big countries were suspended) and also in 2018 but in a non-Olympic weight. but for example at the Asian Games or even this Asian Championships he just won a bronze. there is an Armenian guy in this weight his record is something like 30kg better than Hashemi's PB. he is probably going to win the gold in Tokyo and there are something like 5-6 other weightlifters in the world more or less in the same level as Hashemi. good news for Hashemi is that Olympic and Asian Games champion Ruslan Nurudinov is now banned for doping

even though we also have to follow other teams, Iran is not the only country facing limitations. nobody can send more than 4 weightlifters, for some of them like Iran it's 2 and for some (Russia and Kazakhstan) it's just 1 !! (per gender) I'm sure China wants all possible 4 gold medals. this is a sure thing they will use 67, 73 and 81, the question for them is who is going to take the last spot ? someone at 61 or Tian Tao ! and if Tian Tao participates winning the gold medal will be hard for Moradi. this guy is so unpredictable, he was very close to 236kg in Ashgabat. and few days ago he tried Moradi's WR twice he failed again but he is not that far. that's why it's very important for Moradi to come back strongly and show China he is in good shape. they may not even send Tian Tao. we also had Ilya Ilyin participating in this weight at the Asian Championship, he was poor and finished 5th or 6th. we know he is capable of lifting everything.

in general I prefer +109kg. because in that weight we have something like 60-70% chance for medal even though gold is almost impossible. on other hand at 109kg we have something like 20-30% chance for medal. and still gold is almost impossible (unless this Armenian guy gets caught for doping before the Olympics which is not impossible )

[_Navid_]

Hashemi only became world Champion because Russians were banned, and IMO the competition was weak. I like Hashemi but with a strong competition, he may end up with a Bronze (MAX!). But who knows, he keeps getting better year by year...

That is very true. I think world championship 2019 would be the best place to judge which 2 should be sent!

[_Navid_]

yeah Ali Hashemi is a two time World Champion which is great but to be honest he won the gold in 2017 because the level was very low (9 big countries were suspended) and also in 2018 but in a non-Olympic weight. but for example at the Asian Games or even this Asian Championships he just won a bronze. there is an Armenian guy in this weight his record is something like 30kg better than Hashemi's PB. he is probably going to win the gold in Tokyo and there are something like 5-6 other weightlifters in the world more or less in the same level as Hashemi. good news for Hashemi is that Olympic and Asian Games champion Ruslan Nurudinov is now banned for doping

even though we also have to follow other teams, Iran is not the only country facing limitations. nobody can send more than 4 weightlifters, for some of them like Iran it's 2 and for some (Russia and Kazakhstan) it's just 1 !! (per gender) I'm sure China wants all possible 4 gold medals. this is a sure thing they will use 67, 73 and 81, the question for them is who is going to take the last spot ? someone at 61 or Tian Tao ! and if Tian Tao participates winning the gold medal will be hard for Moradi. this guy is so unpredictable, he was very close to 236kg in Ashgabat. and few days ago he tried Moradi's WR twice he failed again but he is not that far. that's why it's very important for Moradi to come back strongly and show China he is in good shape. they may not even send Tian Tao. we also had Ilya Ilyin participating in this weight at the Asian Championship, he was poor and finished 5th or 6th. we know he is capable of lifting everything.

in general I prefer +109kg. because in that weight we have something like 60-70% chance for medal even though gold is almost impossible. on other hand at 109kg we have something like 20-30% chance for medal. and still gold is almost impossible (unless this Armenian guy gets caught for doping before the Olympics which is not impossible )

I agree with you. Let's hope Tian Tao doesn't make it and/or Lasha gets caught for doping!!

[Irannn]

Karate is an Olympic sport only for 2020 and won't be included for 2024 unfortunately. the qualification is mostly based on the ranking, top 4 from each weight qualify and after that there is just one chance for the rest. the last chance qualification tournament in France where the top 3 qualify. in general we will have 10 athletes in each event. some quotas are reserved for the host nation and wild cards etc.

we had Premiere league event in Morocco few days ago and WKF just updated the ranking today. right now only two of our athletes are in top 4.

important note, while we already had European Champs included in the ranking, the 2019 Asian Championships will be held later which will be a great chance for our athletes to collect more points. right now they counted 2018 Asian Championships in the ranking. but they will replace it with 2019 results. we didn't send most of our best athletes to the Asian Champs, our only main athlete who went to the Asian Champs and won a medal was Hamideh Abbasali, she won the gold and she has to repeat that medal to not lose any points here.


Men's and Women's Kata:
20 - Fatemeh Sadeghi - 840pts
26 - Abolfazl Shahrjerdi - 787pts
there is absolutely no chance for Iran to qualify in Kata

Men's 67kg:
16 - Hamoun Derafshipour - 1687pts
41 - Amir Mehdizadeh - 1005
this event is a merger between 60kg and 67kg. our chance looks very slim, Derafshipour is something like 1800pts behind the 4th placer and for Mehdizadeh that's 2500 ! still not impossible but they have to win 2-3 gold medals in remaining qualification events to have a chance.

Men's 75kg:
4 - Bahman Askari - 3007
7 - Ali Asghar Asiabari - 1972
Askari is currently 4th but actually 3rd because there is a Japanese athlete above him (Japan as Olympic host are already qualified) but he is only leading by 500pts over the next athlete. he has to be careful. Asiabari is also there. I think one of them will qualify at the end. winning the Asian Championship will put Askari in a much better situation.

Men's +75kg:
3 - Sajjad Ganjzadeh - 3622
6 - Zabihollah Poorsheib - 2910
10 - Saleh Abazari - 2182
things look good in this weight, Ganjzadeh just won the last event in Morocco. we have lots of athles from 2-3 countries in top 10 which means the next not-qualified athlete in his weight is 1800pts behind him. I would say he is pretty safe still it will be better if he collects more points and makes sure of that.

Women's 55kg:
14 - Sara Bahmanyar - 1717
17 - Taravat Khaksar - 1537
this looks very hard for these girls to qualify but Bahmanyar is 1200pts behind the qualification zone. not impossible at all. for Khaksar it's even harder she is 2100pts behind. specially Bahmanyar will stand a chance if she wins the Asian Championships. that will be something like 800pts.

Women's 61kg:
9 - Rozita Alipour - 1717
Alipour is 1100pts behind the 4th place athlete. she still has a chance.

Women's +61kg:
17 - Hamideh Abbasali - 1882
despite being 18th, she is just 500pts behind. but the problem is she has to win the Asian gold to NOT LOSE points. she can't gain anything from the Asian Championship.

-----------------------------------------
in general while there are still 5-6 more qualification events left. I think Askari and Ganjzadeh are our only realistic chance to qualify through ranking. our female Karatekas are not consistent. I don't think they can win back to back medals to qualify but at least on paper they still have a chance. the Asian Championships next month in Vietnam is very important here. because if you don't qualify directly. there is a chance for continental gold medalists to qualify if they are good in the ranking but I don't go into the details. that's complicated

[euphory]

Climbing is now officially an olympic sport, and we have 1 Iranian speed climber ( also record holder ) climbing, dont know about other iranian climbers tough.

[_Navid_]

I think this is the first Olympics in a while that I cannot even say for sure that we will get 1 gold medal!!

We have a few who on their good day can get it, it is way too early to predict now but right now I would say the order of likelihood of the ones who have a chance would be the following:

1) Sohrab Moradi (weightlifting)
2) Hassan Yazdani (wrestling)
3) Bahman Askari (Karate)
4) Sajjad Ganjzadeh (Karate)
5) Alireza Karimi (wrestling)
6) Hossein Nouri (wrestling)
7) Mohammad Ali Geraei (wrestling)
8) Parviz Hadi /Komeil Ghasemi (wrestling)

In Taekwondo I don't have much hope this time. The two Koreans in lower weights are very strong and Khodabakhshi and Mardani aren't what they used to be, in 2016 I was confident we would get 2 golds but even then it was a flop.

[_Navid_]

Climbing is now officially an olympic sport, and we have 1 Iranian speed climber ( also record holder ) climbing, dont know about other iranian climbers tough.

Unfortunately speed climbing is combined with two other forms as a single medal category so our chances are much lower there. Otherwise we would have won a medal for sure.

[Irannn]

I think this is the first Olympics in a while that I cannot even say for sure that we will get 1 gold medal!!

We have a few who on their good day can get it, it is way too early to predict now but right now I would say the order of likelihood of the ones who have a chance would be the following:

1) Sohrab Moradi (weightlifting)
2) Hassan Yazdani (wrestling)
3) Bahman Askari (Karate)
4) Sajjad Ganjzadeh (Karate)
5) Alireza Karimi (wrestling)
6) Hossein Nouri (wrestling)
7) Mohammad Ali Geraei (wrestling)
8) Parviz Hadi /Komeil Ghasemi (wrestling)

In Taekwondo I don't have much hope this time. The two Koreans in lower weights are very strong and Khodabakhshi and Mardani aren't what they used to be, in 2016 I was confident we would get 2 golds but even then it was a flop.

I agree witih your top 4 but Alireza Karimi has no chance for the gold. unfortunately for him 92kg is not an Olympic weight and even if makes the team in 97kg (and beat Reza Yazdani in process) he will be undersized against likes of Sadullaev and Synder. even though Sadullaev is not as dominant as he used to be but still he is the huge favorite for the gold.

in Karate, whoever qualifies from Iran will be a gold medal favorite . I really hope we qualify 3-4 at least. but results in Karate are random so you never know.

in taekwondo, Khodabakhshi has absolutely no chance to qualify. we better focus on 58, 68 and +80. right now Hadipour, Hosseini and Mardani are our candidates to qualify. we will have the World Championships very soon which will be the main event for the qualification.