Road to Olympics 2020 Tokyo

[_Navid_]

I'm sure nobody expects Iran to qualify in women's 3x3 basketball, this is a small tournament with only 8 teams ! but guess what, Iran actually has a good chance to qualify !

the end of the qualification period is 1 November and right now Iran is 6th
https://fiba3x3.com/en/rankings/federation.html#women

top 4 qualify directly for the Olympics but max 2 for each continent and since we have 3 European teams above Iran, all Iran has to do is to surpass Mongolia in the ranking. Iran is 6th the moment when I'm writing this but this ranking changes daily.

but the thing is, Iran is no way near the 6th team in the world, and Mongolia isn't close to be 5th ! both countries (and many other countries like Romania, Taiwan etc) found a bug in the ranking system and they are using it to collect more points. they are having lots of local women's 3x3 events in Iran these days. day and night to collect more points. 2 days ago Iran was 500,000pts behind Mongolia. now it's less than 300,000. with 20 more days to go if they continue like that they can qualify. btu of course Mongolia is also doing the same. it's a battle of who organizes more tournament inside the country !

this is not something to be proud of to be honest, our team doesn't "technically' deserve to be at the Olympics but they are trying their best "this way" to qualify. we will know the final result in 20 days. I only want them to qualify because it will develop women's basketball in Iran, nothing else. they will lose all the games in Tokyo.

This was very interesting to know. Thanks.

[_Navid_]

No it won't be the worst. But it will be worse than 2012 and 2016 OG.
Beijing 2008 was a total disgrace for Iran, one Gold and one Bronze.
In pre Revolution period, worst OG for Iran were 1948 London, 1964 Tokyo, 1972 Munich and 1976 Montreal.
The OG just after war such as 1988 Seoul and 1992 Barcelona were also bad.
But in my opinion the worst ever was 1976 Montreal followed by Beijing 2008 (there should be no excuse for poor olympic performance in those two) Iran had large team in both and financially Iran was doing well in both 2008 and 1976. Political situation had minimal effect on Iran's performance.
1996 Atlanta, 2004 Athens, 2012 London and 2016 Rio Iran would have done better if referees were fair.

Yep, 1976 was disgraceful after the amazing performance of Iran in 1974 Asian games.

2008 was terrible too even though we had a few gold medal favourites before the games. Haddadi could have won the gold if he wasn't injured. Sourian had the first loss of his life in this tournament (with referees help). Wrestling was very disappointing apart from Mohammadi. Naderian didn't deserve to go as one of our 2 Taekwondo quotas.

[Irannn]

With less than a year before the Olympics I was looking at the "remaining" sports and what's our chance. I make a very short review about each one of them

I only listed sports where Iran at least has a chance (even if that's 1%) in some sports like baseball or Tennis we never had a chance and we didn't even try.

Aquatics: Almost no chance in Diving, the same in water polo even though we are improving and we will try our chance. our only realistic chance is swimming, but still even that is almost impossible. I think we will have one swimmer in Tokyo by wild card.
Archery: failed to qualify in the main qualification event, still good chance to qualify 1 or 2 at the Asian qualifiers in November.
Athletics: Already qualified 2, good chance for one more. right now I can't see anybody else close to the qualification marks.
Badminton: the qualification is only based on the ranking of April 2020, right now Sorayya Aghaei is very close in women's singles. still a long way to go. she has a slim chance.
Basketball: Men's team already qualified, there is a chance for women's 3x3 as I explained before but it seems Mongolia is doing the same as Iran and they are more serious so I don't think Iran can qualify.
Boxing: There will be 2 qualification events next year. our best chance is in Asia, I expect Iran to qualify something like 2, it will be depend on the draw and luck.
Canoeing: failed to qualify in the main event as expected, our chance also doesn't look good for the Asian qualifiers, I won't be surprised if we get one quota but I don't count on it.
Cycling: this is almost a sure thing we will have only 1 cyclist in Tokyo. 1 in men's road race. that will be official next month.
Equestrian: very slim chance for Lita Sohi (Iranian-British) in dressage, it seems she just changed her horse and the new one is better but she is a bit behind in the ranking and has to work hard.
Fencing: we are almost guaranteed 3 quotas in men's sabre (Abedini, Pakdaman, Rahbari) no chance to qualify via ranking in other events, but we can try in Asian qualifiers, no realistic chance but men's epee and women's sabre aren't without a chance.
Football: well I'm sure all of you guys know more than me about the circus of our U23 team. but in football nothing is impossible.
Gymnastics: after failing to qualify at the Worlds, there is a very slim chance for Keikha to qualify in Pommel horse through the World Cup series. very slim.
Handball: no realistic chance for Iran's incomplete team against Qatar and Bahrain.
Judo: Iran is suspended temporarily but even if they lift the ban, I don't think Iran is interested anymore.
Karate: I talked about it in details. Very good chance for at least 3 quotas already , we can win 5 and even 6 through the last chance tournament.
Rowing: per new rules countries can't win more than 1 boat in the Asian qualifiers, that's what we will win for sure. I think it will be in women's singles.
Sailing: We have one active sailor in the country and he is trying to qualify. I'm not really familiar with this sport but from what I researched his chance is almost zero.
Shooting: we already have 2, one last tournament is remaining which is the most important one, the Asian qualifiers in November with 3 spots available in each event. since most of Asian top shooters are already qualified, we have a good chance for few more quotas. I hope for at least 3 or maybe more.
Sport Climbing: There is one spot available in the Asian qualifier, I think we have a slim chance in women's combined event with Elnaz Rekabi. but that's a long shot.
Table Tennis: they changed the format completely this time, so it's hard for me to predict anything. I can say 1 quota in men's singles is almost guaranteed but more than that is hard to achieve, having someone in women's singles looks more likely than having a second male to qualify. so only one of Alamian brothers will go to Tokyo this time.
Taekwondo: we are getting close to the end of the qualification period. chance to qualify 2 (or hopefully 3) via ranking. and after that we can try our chance for the women in Asian qualifier, at max we can qualify 5 but I think we will have 4.
Volleyball: we will have the Asian qualifier in January 2020 with Iran as the main favorite. beside that there is a very slim chance in beach volleyball.
Weightlifting: We will qualify 2 weightlifters for sure. the question is who and in which weight. we are limited to qualify max 2 because of our doping history.
Wrestling: we qualified 5 in the main qualification event, 2 more chances left to complete our team. both of them next year. I believe we can qualify 10 or 11.

[Bessos]

This doesn't look too good.

I remember 4 years ago things were also bad during qualifications but this time it seems our olympic team will be even smaller.

Of course it won't be smaller if we manage to qualify both basketball and volleyball, but I mean smaller in terms of medal chances.

[Irannn]

This doesn't look too good.
I remember 4 years ago things were also bad during qualifications but this time it seems our olympic team will be even smaller.
Of course it won't be smaller if we manage to qualify both basketball and volleyball, but I mean smaller in terms of medal chances.

50-60 is usually our number. 63 in Rio was our 2nd big delegation in history. our biggest delegation was in 1976 (86 athletes) mostly because we had no qualifiers in individual sports. it was open to everybody. even though that big delegation got terrible results.

They installed this qualification system in 1992 (or 1988 I'm not sure) and since then we never had more than 40 athletes until Beijing 2008 when we had a jump to 55. yes if it wasn't for basketball I would say we can't match that 63 in Rio. now it's only possible because of team sports. but to be honest part of it wasn't our fault. in some sports they simply changed the qualification method and made it harder for Iran. for example in Cycling, we had 3 cyclists guaranteed by topping the Asian ranking but they simply removed the continental quotas. we will get 1 quota by finishing in top 50 of the world. or in weightlifting we had 5 in Rio but this time they made it max 4 for everybody and max 2 for Iran (because of our doping history)

the spot that will hurt our number is Athletics, we had 10 in Rio but I'm sure we won't be anywhere close to that in Tokyo. first because we got weaker in general in athletics and second because they changed the qualification method. even though all of those 10 athletes in Rio were very poor.

in term of our medal chances. I think we are more or less in the same situation. obviously we got weaker in weightlifting and freestyle wrestling (not sure where we stand right now in Greco-Roman, our team is very young and gave me some hopes for the next year) but then we have Karate to make up for that. Taekwondo is an interesting situation. we had high expectations in Rio and they were DISASTROUS, this time we still have a good team but with less expectations.

[_Navid_]

A very impressive win against South Korea for Iran's handball team. Sadly this team doesn't get 10% of the attention and support Volleyball or Basketball are getting.

The game wasn't even broadcasted. We really would have a good shot in qualifying if our full team was here.

[PSGman#19]

A very impressive win against South Korea for Iran's handball team. Sadly this team doesn't get 10% of the attention and support Volleyball or Basketball are getting.

The game wasn't even broadcasted. We really would have a good shot in qualifying if our full team was here.

Only one team will qualify from this tournament and it will Qatar. It seems the best than Iran can do is to qualify for Olympics qualifiers with non-asian teams.

[_Navid_]

Mir Hashem got robbed against the Korean in the Taekwondo grand prix. Things look shaky for him. We only have one guaranteed Olympic spot in Taekwondo so far.

[Irannn]

Mir Hashem got robbed against the Korean in the Taekwondo grand prix. Things look shaky for him. We only have one guaranteed Olympic spot in Taekwondo so far.

He got robbed indeed, it could be at least a silver for Hosseini because he had to face Ahmadi in next round (which was an automatic win)

as you said Armin Hadipour secured his place at the Olympics. now this is even mathematically impossible for him to drop outside of top 5.

but 68kg ranking is something like this after the yesterday competition

top 3 are way ahead of the rest. so I start with #4
4. Jordan 301.5
5. Iran 293
6. Spain 274
7. Belgium 271.5
8. Chinese Taipei 260
9. Croatia 258
10. Brazil 249
11. Russia 246

only few events left, the Grand Prix final is the main one, but before that European athletes can participate in "Extra Euro Champs" in 10 days and grab 40 more points. we will have a better image about Mirhashem's chance after that tournament. but if we consider the worst, he has to win the gold in Moscow GP final to qualify.

Sajjad Mardani also lost in the first round. to be honest if Mirhashem fails to qualify, I hope Mardani fails too because in that case we still can send one athlete to the Asian Qualifier (which will be Hosseini) but if Mardani qualifies then Hosseini's Olympic dream is gone. Mardani almost has no chance through the ranking (not impossible though if he wins gold in Moscow but that's unlikely) but he has another chance in "Grand Slam" in late December.

[_Navid_]

He got robbed indeed, it could be at least a silver for Hosseini because he had to face Ahmadi in next round (which was an automatic win)

as you said Armin Hadipour secured his place at the Olympics. now this is even mathematically impossible for him to drop outside of top 5.

but 68kg ranking is something like this after the yesterday competition

top 3 are way ahead of the rest. so I start with #4
4. Jordan 301.5
5. Iran 293
6. Spain 274
7. Belgium 271.5
8. Chinese Taipei 260
9. Croatia 258
10. Brazil 249
11. Russia 246

only few events left, the Grand Prix final is the main one, but before that European athletes can participate in "Extra Euro Champs" in 10 days and grab 40 more points. we will have a better image about Mirhashem's chance after that tournament. but if we consider the worst, he has to win the gold in Moscow GP final to qualify.

Sajjad Mardani also lost in the first round. to be honest if Mirhashem fails to qualify, I hope Mardani fails too because in that case we still can send one athlete to the Asian Qualifier (which will be Hosseini) but if Mardani qualifies then Hosseini's Olympic dream is gone. Mardani almost has no chance through the ranking (not impossible though if he wins gold in Moscow but that's unlikely) but he has another chance in "Grand Slam" in late December.

Let's hope Hosseini's main rivals (Spain, Belgium and Croatia) don't end up on the podium in the European championship, but I think they will.

I truly hope Hosseini's draw is a good one in Moscow. I mean anything other than facing Lee before the final should be fine for him. He can beat the rest even Sinden with a good margin.

I agree, if Hashem doesn't qualify, I hope Sajjad doesn't too. Because Hashem is the only one with the potential to win Gold in Tokyo. I am not convinced Hadipour can beat either of the Koreans. Although he should be able to get a silver/Bronze in Tokyo.

[Irannn]

Let's hope Hosseini's main rivals (Spain, Belgium and Croatia) don't end up on the podium in the European championship, but I think they will.

I truly hope Hosseini's draw is a good one in Moscow. I mean anything other than facing Lee before the final should be fine for him. He can beat the rest even Sinden with a good margin.

I agree, if Hashem doesn't qualify, I hope Sajjad doesn't too. Because Hashem is the only one with the potential to win Gold in Tokyo. I am not convinced Hadipour can beat either of the Koreans. Although he should be able to get a silver/Bronze in Tokyo.

Yeah I also think they will. the thing is this is not the real European Championships. this is an extra tournament just to make things level for European athletes because Taekwondo wasn't part of the European Games. (that's not the rest of the world's fault) what makes me worried is that's not a prestigious event . not a real Euro Champ. just a ranking event. imagine if you are a second tier European athlete, it's probably better to lose and let those 3 European guys to qualify and make things easier for the European Qualification tournament. but of course 40pts in the ranking is a big deal, and ranking matters a lot for seeding in all tournaments. so I hope all European athletes take it seriously.

I also agree with you about Hadipour, he is good for a medal. he is consistently winning medals in Grand Slam events. but for winning the gold he has to beat that Korean guy Jang Jung (I think they will send him to Tokyo and not Kim TH) not impossible he was close last time.

I still hope all 3 of them qualify.

as you know there is no "draw" in taekwondo. they just put them in the bracket based on their ranking, and Mirhashem as seed 8 had to face seed 1 in the QF. but what's confusing for me is why they used August 2019 ranking for this ?! (not September. not October but August ?!) but Mirhashem improved his ranking since then so he won't face Lee in the QF next time. that's a sure thing.

[Irannn]

Iran Handball is officially out of the Olympic qualification before our last group match vs Kuwait. we beat Korea by 1, we lost to Bahrain by 3 and Korea just beat Bahrain by 1. we will be 3rd in group in 3 way tie-break between 3 teams (even if we beat Kuwait)

now I regret it more because we really could beat Bahrain two days ago.

-------------------------------

in another news, today Iran got an Olympic quota in Road Cycling, Iran being rank 39 in the world, (countries between 33-50 in WR had one quota) qualified 1 spot in men's road race.
this will be our only quota in all Cycling events, I mean in Road, Track, Mountain Bike and BMX. We usually had 3 quotas guaranteed in Cycling each time but they changed the qualification rules and dominating Asian Tours doesn't give us free quotas anymore.

[_Navid_]

How easily we lost the Olympic quota for handball. As I predicted before the Qatar team is not like what they were 4 years ago and they didn't even make the final. Korea the team we beat and Bahrain are playing in the final for the Olympic quota. Shame on the federation for not getting our complete team for this tournament, because I can bet you 100% we would have qualified.

[Irannn]

I just finished watching the Switzerland tournament in Weightlifting and I think Moradi made things VERY complicated for himself. he lifted only 80+120 for a total of 200kg ! that's just 100pts for him in the ranking. it was easy for him like lifting nothing. I understand he wanted to be not put his shoulder in danger but seriously 100pts is not going to help him !! if he wasn't sure about his shoulder he could simply register and not participate, 0pts and 100pts aren't much different with these rules.

he had 1242 from his WR performance at the Worlds last year . now he is 1341 ! I think he at least needs something like 3300 to qualify. which means 1000pts in each of his remaining events. which means 400kg !!! that won't be easy at all considering his shoulder. for 400kg he has to be fully prepared and fully recovered. can he do that in less than 6 months ? I'm not sure.

technically Moradi has to participate in 3 more events in next 6 months but only 2 of them will be counted. so the 3rd one can be a zero. I think he is going to Turkey in next couple of weeks. just to register and not lift anything. I think he will go 100% in these two events, Fajr Cup (in February) and Asian Championship (in April). let's just hope he fully recovers before that.

now we are at the end of the second period, only few Iranian weightlifters are still alive for the Olympic quotas. I will write in details about them later today.

[PSGman#19]

How easily we lost the Olympic quota for handball. As I predicted before the Qatar team is not like what they were 4 years ago and they didn't even make the final. Korea the team we beat and Bahrain are playing in the final for the Olympic quota. Shame on the federation for not getting our complete team for this tournament, because I can bet you 100% we would have qualified.

By the way, why all the arab teams are relatively good in handball : bahrain, saudi, tunisia, egypt ?