Road to Olympics 2020 Tokyo

[Irannn]

Irannn I don’t get how you know so much about every sport. Are you a professional reporter? It’s an amazing resource to read your posts, thanks!

lol no I'm not. maybe I should be

I just happen to follow something like 6-7 sports VERY closely . I also follow big events for other sports. specially when Iran is involved. so I can say I know the basic about almost every sport. but for example I'm no expert in athletics, swimming or Gymnastics but I know exactly where Iran stands in those sports (or any other sport)

I don't like football as much as most of you guys (I never miss a TM match though) that gives you more free time to watch other sports. for example I never miss a World wrestling Championship match to watch the Tehran Derby.

[Irannn]

Anyone watching the world weightlifting championships??

Kianoush Rostami manages to bomb out again. This time with some help from the organizers screwing up the weights when it was his turn.

It also hurts our chances of winning the team title.

Those kind of mistakes happen sometimes. he had to focus on his own job. instead he tried to show off, doing stupid things. I think he could win the gold today but now he is going home empty handed and he only has himself to blame. even though he is too arrogant to accept it.

this is the 3rd time for him bombing out unnecessarily starting his attempts very high. to me enough is enough. they should never give him another opportunity unless he changes his behavior . for people who don't know, since 2015 he is training alone, with his brother. you don't see the Iranian coaches around him even in the competition, he picks his attempts himself. it worked once for him, in Rio Olympics but he only failed and failed after that.

beside that with this, he 90% lost his chance of qualifying for the Olympics. I will write more about that after the competition. but this is mandatory for him and any other Iranian weightlifter to get a result (and not bombing out) in this tournament. for Olympic qualification you need at least "1 result" in each 6 months window and there is only one mini tournament left in this window. they are supposed to send Sohrab Moradi (who is injured currently) to that event in Switzerland. now Rostami also needs to go there otherwise his Olympic chance is pretty much done.

[Rooyintan]

I just looked at some of Iran's medalists from events listed in https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weight..._Qualification
so each national federation can send up to 8 weightlifter (who qualify).

Will all the following Iranians be on the list for Olympics, if not which ones will most likely qualify?

89Kg - Ali Miri

96Kg - Sohrab Moradi, Ayoub Mousavi

102Kg - Reza Beiralvand, Amir Hoghoughi

109Kg - Ali Hashemi

109+Kg - Ali Davoudi

[_Navid_]

I just looked at some of Iran's medalists from events listed in https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weight..._Qualification
so each national federation can send up to 8 weightlifter (who qualify).

Will all the following Iranians be on the list for Olympics, if not which ones will most likely qualify?

89Kg - Ali Miri

96Kg - Sohrab Moradi, Ayoub Mousavi

102Kg - Reza Beiralvand, Amir Hoghoughi

109Kg - Ali Hashemi

109+Kg - Ali Davoudi

Iran only has 2 spots for the Olympics. They reduced our quota and many other countries' quotas due to excessive amount of doping cases in the past years.

So we have to send 2 athletes which we are sure can medal for us there.

One will be very likely from 96 kg. If Sohrab is fit he will 100% go as Rostami is not at all reliable after screwing up 3 times in a row.
The other one could be Ali Hashemi at 109 who has the potential to win the gold and has won 2 world championship gold medals already. Or if we want to settle for silver they will send Ali Davoudi or Ali Hoseini in super heavyweight.

[Irannn]

Iran only has 2 spots for the Olympics. They reduced our quota and many other countries' quotas due to excessive amount of doping cases in the past years.

So we have to send 2 athletes which we are sure can medal for us there.

One will be very likely from 96 kg. If Sohrab is fit he will 100% go as Rostami is not at all reliable after screwing up 3 times in a row.
The other one could be Ali Hashemi at 109 who has the potential to win the gold and has won 2 world championship gold medals already. Or if we want to settle for silver they will send Ali Davoudi or Ali Hoseini in super heavyweight.

Ali Hashemi has no chance for the gold, he is a two time World Champion only because 2017 was a very weak tournament (9-10 top countries were banned) and last year he participated in a non-Olympic weight. we will see this year how far he is behind the medal favorites in thsi weight. he can't even win the gold in Asia in a normal competition.

and for Alihosseini. by missing this event. he missed his chance for Tokyo. looks like he is going to retire soon.

so it will be 1. Sohrab Moradi, 2. Ali Davoudi and if something happens Ali Hashemi can be #3 to replace any of them. since there is no chance for gold in any other weight beside 96kg, I would pick Davoudi, he is a safe silver medal IMO.

[shahin2000]

nope. that was weightlifting. it was never based on the team ranking in wrestling.

this is not great but this is what i was expecting. I was expecting 2+2. we got 3+2. so I'm not that upset about it. yeah last time in Las Vegas (2015) we qualified 5 out of 6 in freestyle but well that was 4 years ago. it could be more. Mohebbi was 1pt away, Taheri and Saravi in Greco got robbed in the last match before the quota. Shaabani only had to hold on to his lead against somewhere older than himself.

to me qualifying in Asia is no problem in most of those weights. 87 and 97 Greco + 65, 97 and 125 freestyle. in some of them we are just too good for the rest of Asia (125 FS, 87/97 GR) and in some of them all top asian wrestlers are already qualified (65 FS) but our main problem is 74 FS and 67 GR. right now it looks hard for Iran to qualify those two events.

the last time we had an incomplete freestyle team at the Olympics was 1996 and only because at the time there was only 1 qualification tournament and one of our wrestlers didn't make weight (Nader Rahmati 48kg) unfortunately this is possible to happen again.

but we still have 6 months to improve and qualify a full team for the Olympics. that's still possible.

Irann: Do you recall that for the last olympic it took Sourian the last qualifying tournament to qualify the weight for olympics?

[Irannn]

Irann: Do you recall that for the last olympic it took Sourian the last qualifying tournament to qualify the weight for olympics?

Yes of course and that was the reason he failed at the Olympics. he had to cut weight 3 times to finally qualify for the Olympics

but this time they reduced the number of tournaments. last time we had 1 Asian and 2 World qualifiers, now it's 1 Asian and 1 World tournament. because IOC reduced wrestling quotas. this time will be harder for everybody.

[t8310]

Irannn how is your spoken English? I wonder if you would consider joining an Iranian sports podcast or something, I think with your amazing expertise a lot of people would love to hear more about intl Iranian teams other than just soccer. Even if it’s once every 1-2 months or something it could be cool to do getting close to the olympics. I don’t have a podcast myself but there is an excellent one called Golbezan that focuses on soccer, wondering if it would be worthwhile for me to send them a shout about you. Would that be ok?

[Irannn]

Irannn how is your spoken English? I wonder if you would consider joining an Iranian sports podcast or something, I think with your amazing expertise a lot of people would love to hear more about intl Iranian teams other than just soccer. Even if it’s once every 1-2 months or something it could be cool to do getting close to the olympics. I don’t have a podcast myself but there is an excellent one called Golbezan that focuses on soccer, wondering if it would be worthwhile for me to send them a shout about you. Would that be ok?

unfortunately not that good. I can handle a normal English conversation but speaking for a podcast needs a higher level. I'm sure you already noticed lots of mistakes in my English

[_Navid_]

Those kind of mistakes happen sometimes. he had to focus on his own job. instead he tried to show off, doing stupid things. I think he could win the gold today but now he is going home empty handed and he only has himself to blame. even though he is too arrogant to accept it.

this is the 3rd time for him bombing out unnecessarily starting his attempts very high. to me enough is enough. they should never give him another opportunity unless he changes his behavior . for people who don't know, since 2015 he is training alone, with his brother. you don't see the Iranian coaches around him even in the competition, he picks his attempts himself. it worked once for him, in Rio Olympics but he only failed and failed after that.

beside that with this, he 90% lost his chance of qualifying for the Olympics. I will write more about that after the competition. but this is mandatory for him and any other Iranian weightlifter to get a result (and not bombing out) in this tournament. for Olympic qualification you need at least "1 result" in each 6 months window and there is only one mini tournament left in this window. they are supposed to send Sohrab Moradi (who is injured currently) to that event in Switzerland. now Rostami also needs to go there otherwise his Olympic chance is pretty much done.

Irannn, it was my assumption, and also what I heard from English commentators today that just attending the weighting session and doping test session is enough to satisfy the every 6 month participation for Olympic qualification. Are you sure you have to get a result too?! Because I don't think Sohrab Moradi will be ready to lift weights anytime soon.

Also you were correct about Ali Hashemi! No way he should be an Olympic candidate after the performance today!! We should send one in 96 and one in 109+.

[Irannn]

Irannn, it was my assumption, and also what I heard from English commentators today that just attending the weighting session and doping test session is enough to satisfy the every 6 month participation for Olympic qualification. Are you sure you have to get a result too?! Because I don't think Sohrab Moradi will be ready to lift weights anytime soon.

Also you were correct about Ali Hashemi! No way he should be an Olympic candidate after the performance today!! We should send one in 96 and one in 109+.

Technically just attending the weight-in is enough to satisfy that. that keeps you alive in the list

but still you need results to qualify. only top 8 per each weight (plus the next best from each continent) qualify for the Olympics. they only count 4 results (1 from each 6 months window + next best result) imagine if one of those 4 results is a Zero. that will lower your chance massively. Moradi can live with a zero. because he has a big score from the first window. even though I think Moradi won't set a zero in Switzerland. he will lift some very low records to at least get some points.

if you check here
https://www.iwf.net/qualif/menu/

Moradi has 2 scores from the first window. 1242 and a zero (from Fajr Cup where he just participated in weight in) if he participates in Switzerland tournament (which is a must for him) he still needs 3 more results from the last window. one of them can be a zero. but he needs 2 big results.

Rostami on other hand has 2 results from the 1st window 973 and 810. you can see a "zero score" will ruin his chance. that's still possible to also send Rostami to Switzerland. but I don't think that happens. I'm just not sure if our coaches do this kind of calculations.

and about Hashemi. yeah his PB is something around 405kg today he needed 420 for a bronze. Olympics will be easier because there will be no China. no 2nd man from Russia. maybe even no Belarus. but still he is probably only good for a bronze (at max) we should focus on 94kg and +109kg. our best bet is to win a gold and a silver. it also depends on other teams too. for example China has 4 quotas and they have World Champions in 5 lower Olympic weights. (and even today they won a bronze) they will have a hard time to pick 4 of them. I secretly hope they won't pick Tian Tao for the Olympics. and that's quite possible because counting on him is a bit risky.

[Rooyintan]

Will there be any Boxers and Fencers for Iran at the Olympics?

If Iran sends Mojtaba Abedini for fencing, that could be a chance for Iran's first Olympic medal in that sport. Overall with weightlifters and wrestlers not doing well, Judo's suspension, only hopes of more medals will be from Karate and possibly Taekwondo, also have to hope Ehsan Hadadi does well in Athletics.

It is a disgrace that Iran goes to Olympics without female athletes in Wrestling, Weightlifting and so many other sports. Female absence, exodus by past Iran athletes and their defect to other nations, ridiculous political policy towards Israel is damaging Iran and hurting our chances for more medals.

[Irannn]

Will there be any Boxers and Fencers for Iran at the Olympics?

If Iran sends Mojtaba Abedini for fencing, that could be a chance for Iran's first Olympic medal in that sport. Overall with weightlifters and wrestlers not doing well, Judo's suspension, only hopes of more medals will be from Karate and possibly Taekwondo, also have to hope Ehsan Hadadi does well in Athletics.

It is a disgrace that Iran goes to Olympics without female athletics in Wrestling, Weightlifting and so many other sports. Female absence, exodus by past Iran athletes and their defect to other nations, ridiculous political policy towards Israel is damaging Iran and hurting our chances for more medals.

Fencing is almost guaranteed to qualify a full 3-man Sabre team, of course we will know that for sure at the end of the qualification period but based on results so far. their spot is 95% guaranteed. and Abedini is one of the team members. results in fencing is so random. he is in the mix for the medal but his chance is less than 10%. actually I count more on our "sabre team" to win a medal in team event. there will be only 8 teams there and 1 or 2 wins will be enough for a medal.

in boxing we will have the qualification tournaments early 2020. I think Iran will win 1 or 2 quotas but an Olympic medal looks very unlikely .

Judo was never a medal sport for Iran at the Olympics. even with Mollaei I wasn't counting on Judo to win a medal . let alone without him. our best chance is wrestling. weightlifting and Taekwondo as usual plus Karate this time. there are slim chances here and there in Athletics (only Ehsan Haddadi), Shooting and Fencing (and I would say Judo before that story) and let me surprise you if Saeid Keikha qualifies in Gymnastics , he will have something like 2% to win a medal in pommel horse.

and I'm not pessimistic about wrestling. at least our Greco team is in good hands and they are in the right path. maybe they surprise us next year in Tokyo. but yes things don't look good in freestyle. still beside Yazdani, we still have good medal chance in 2 other weights (97 and 125)

right now, my prediction is we will win more or less the same number of medals as Rio 2016. something between 8 to 10 medals

[littlepersia17]

Technically just attending the weight-in is enough to satisfy that. that keeps you alive in the list

but still you need results to qualify. only top 8 per each weight (plus the next best from each continent) qualify for the Olympics. they only count 4 results (1 from each 6 months window + next best result) imagine if one of those 4 results is a Zero. that will lower your chance massively. Moradi can live with a zero. because he has a big score from the first window. even though I think Moradi won't set a zero in Switzerland. he will lift some very low records to at least get some points.

if you check here
https://www.iwf.net/qualif/menu/

Moradi has 2 scores from the first window. 1242 and a zero (from Fajr Cup where he just participated in weight in) if he participates in Switzerland tournament (which is a must for him) he still needs 3 more results from the last window. one of them can be a zero. but he needs 2 big results.

Rostami on other hand has 2 results from the 1st window 973 and 810. you can see a "zero score" will ruin his chance. that's still possible to also send Rostami to Switzerland. but I don't think that happens. I'm just not sure if our coaches do this kind of calculations.

and about Hashemi. yeah his PB is something around 405kg today he needed 420 for a bronze. Olympics will be easier because there will be no China. no 2nd man from Russia. maybe even no Belarus. but still he is probably only good for a bronze (at max) we should focus on 94kg and +109kg. our best bet is to win a gold and a silver. it also depends on other teams too. for example China has 4 quotas and they have World Champions in 5 lower Olympic weights. (and even today they won a bronze) they will have a hard time to pick 4 of them. I secretly hope they won't pick Tian Tao for the Olympics. and that's quite possible because counting on him is a bit risky.

I don’t know what’s the exact the condition of Moradi and if he needs a 2 weeks more time to recover, but I doubt Iran will choose the Switzerland event (unless they have confirmed that).

Firstly, it’s a Bronze event (no multipliers) and right now at around 1200 points (66th placed in this period), Sohrab needs to get as much points as he possibly can with his current injury. I’d bet they would be looking at the San Marino event, which is a silver competition ( 0.05 multiplier). Plus I’d think San Marino is a cheaper option than Switzerland.

As for Rostami, his chances are slim to none. It was stupid of him to start with 179. A weight he has never hit at a competition (albeit he is heavier now). And his brother cannot be trusted either as a “coach”. He screwed up today, along with the card holders. It’s Moradi and Davoudi 99% going to Tokyo.

As for China, we know they can send 4 men. The 4 solid gold contenders are Chen, Shi, Li/Lu, and the final spot is between Li Fabin and Tian Tao. I’d say if Moradi comes back %100 they will take Li. Otherwise Tian Tao will be in Tokyo.






Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Irannn]

I don’t know what’s the exact the condition of Moradi and if he needs a 2 weeks more time to recover, but I doubt Iran will choose the Switzerland event (unless they have confirmed that).

Firstly, it’s a Bronze event (no multipliers) and right now at around 1200 points (66th placed in this period), Sohrab needs to get as much points as he possibly can with his current injury. I’d bet they would be looking at the San Marino event, which is a silver competition ( 0.05 multiplier). Plus I’d think San Marino is a cheaper option than Switzerland.

As for Rostami, his chances are slim to none. It was stupid of him to start with 179. A weight he has never hit at a competition (albeit he is heavier now). And his brother cannot be trusted either as a “coach”. He screwed up today, along with the card holders. It’s Moradi and Davoudi 99% going to Tokyo.

As for China, we know they can send 4 men. The 4 solid gold contenders are Chen, Shi, Li/Lu, and the final spot is between Li Fabin and Tian Tao. I’d say if Moradi comes back %100 they will take Li. Otherwise Tian Tao will be in Tokyo.

They already confirmed the Switzerland event. San Marino event is the Mediterranean Cup. I'm not sure if that's open for all countries.
https://www.isna.ir/news/98052110380...BE%DB%8C%DA%A9

this says they are hoping for Moradi to lift 320-350kg in Switzerland.

I agree with the rest you said, and I think Chinese coach follows Moradi very closely to decide about their 4th weightlifter in Tokyo. they want all possible 4 gold medals and nothing less.

Davoudi was terrible day but ironically he still has a good chance for silver in Tokyo. Armenia most probably has just 1 quota (and they will use it for 109kg) the next best result was 432kg and we know Davoudi is capable of much more.