Road to Olympics 2020 Tokyo

[Irannn]

This is the list of Iranian eligible weightlifters for the Olympics. there is absolutely no chance for anybody outside of this list. some of these guys only participated in non-Olympic weights so far but they can easily switch to Olympic weights and carry their points, they just need 2 results in their new weights . I know Beiralvand (109) and Miri (89) both will go to 96kg. we have something like 6 candidates only for 96kg !! just 1 for 81kg (and I don't think they even consider that guy Soltani) 1 for 109kg (Hashemi) and 1 for +109kg (Davoudi)

and I have to say again, each weightlifters need 6 results in 3 periods (at least 1 in each period) at the end of the 3rd period. the best result from each period + next best result will be counted

Results in bold will be counted for sure
Results in red will be excluded for sure.

Ali Hashemi (109kg)
Period 1: 964+944+894
Period 2: 869
Period 3: needs 2 results, 1 or maybe 2 of them will be counted

Ali Davoudi (+109kg)
Period 1: 939+882+823
Period 2: 855+842
Period 3: needs 1 result, any other score better than 882 will improve his chance

Reza Beiralvand (102kg) (non-Olympic weight)
Period 1: 940+908
Period 2: 811
Period 3: needs 3 results at 96kg, 1 or maybe 2 of them will be counted

Ali Miri (89kg) (non-Olympic weight)
Period 1: 913
Period 2: 981
Period 3: needs 4 results at 96kg, 2 of them will be counted

Ayoub Mousavi (96kg)
Period 1: 864
Period 2: 936
Period 3: needs 4 results, 2 of them will be counted

Kianoush Rostami (96kg)
Period 1: 973+810
Period 2: 0
Period 3: needs 3 results, 1 or 2 (if better than 810) of them will be counted

Hossein Soltani (81kg)
Period 1: 832
Period 2: 887
Period 3: needs 4 results, 2 of them will be counted

Mohammad Zareei (96kg)
Period 1: 720
Period 2: 873
Period 3: needs 4 results, 2 of them will be counted

Sohrab Moradi (96kg)
Period 1: 1242+0
Period 2: 99
Period 3: needs 3 results, 2 of them will be counted

--------------------------------------------------------
looking at those results. we can already erase some names, Soltani, Miri and Zareei for sure. (Miri and Zareei didn't get invited to the national team) I think at the end of the competition Davoudi, Hashemi and one of 96kg guys will qualify and then it will be Iran's decision to pick 2 of them. I will go with Davoudi and someone at 96kg (hopefully Moradi)

I don't think we can count on Beiralvand too, he has to move to 96kg which won't be easy at all. Rostami's situation also looks terrible, (even if they count his result in Switzerland) so I think if Moradi doesn't make it. our best shot is Ayoub Mousavi. but he needs 4 results in this period. 2 of them can be zero.

[Irannn]

Now I have the confirmation they didn't count Rostami's result here. so he is actually out of the Olympic qualification. not on paper but he needs something like 1200 twice ! that's a world record performance. not completely impossible but I can say almost impossible. he is going to participate in IWF Grand Prix in Peru in next few days but he doesn't look like a good shape for such a big result

so our 2-man Olympic team will be between Davoudi (+109), Hashemi (109) and Moradi/Mousavi (96).

here is the list of possible tournaments for Iran in the last 6 month period, there are more events but I don't think Iran participates. events in bold are confirmed participation.

14-17 November 2019 / International tournament / Turkey
19-24 December 2019 / International tournament / Qatar
1-5 February 2020 / Fajr Cup / Iran
25 Feb - 1 March 2020 / West Asian Championships / UAE
6-15 April 2020 / Asian Championships / Kazakhstan

Asian Champs is the only event possible for Iran in April and most probably in March (unless we want to send a team to Cuba !) I hope our federation keeps that in mind. I also see some possible events in Italy, Uzbekistan and Malta in January and February 2020 but if nothing happens, our guys will go to Turkey, Fajr Cup in Tehran and the Asian Championships. most of them need 3 results so this should be enough. I think only Mousavi needs 4 results. so he has to participate somewhere else beside those 3 events.

[Payam_Ali]

Rostami bombing out at Worlds was idiotic. Be conservative and post a total for god sakes. Hopefully Moradi can get healthy and qualify. Also a shame that Alihosseini is out

[_Navid_]

Thanks Irannn for the great analysis. Do you know where I can watch the swiss competition? Can't find it anywhere.

[_Navid_]

By the way, why all the arab teams are relatively good in handball : bahrain, saudi, tunisia, egypt ?

God question. They have been good ever since I remember. Don't know the reason though!

[Irannn]

Thanks Irannn for the great analysis. Do you know where I can watch the swiss competition? Can't find it anywhere.

I watched the whole competition live here, but it seems the link is not available anymore !
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zxRU0lQ8K8E

[Irannn]

Our entire taekwondo team participated in a G1 competition in Serbia. again some mistakes from our federation, most of our athletes didn't need to participate here, they already fulfilled their max 40pts per year in G1/G2 events. yet they participated and Hadipour even lost to some guy from Tunisia !! they are doing the same mistake as 2016, no need to exhaust our team when they don't need these points. it was only important for Mirhashem and Mardani. Mirhashem won the gold (even though only in overtime) but he is not going to receive 10pts , but only 4, because he already had 36 pts from other events this year. so the only tournament left for him is the Final GP. and Mardani failed once again this time against an unknown guy from Poland in the semifinal. he is recovering from an injury, if our coach was smart, they had to let mardani rest and prepares only for the Final GP or even only for the "Grand Slam".

but this is not the reason I'm writing this, it was a minor event, the reason I brought up this Serbia Tournament is because I just noticed something sad and surprising, something you didn't read about it anywhere YET, while checking the results I saw an Iranian athlete participating under Serbian flag, and this isn't some random guy, this is our World Champion, Mehdi Khodabakhshi !!! it seems he is married to a Serbian girl and living in Serbia for a while. I'm not sure if he can qualify for the Olympics for Serbia because he was participating for Iran a year ago, but I'm not sure about the rules maybe he can !!! he isn't in a good shape recently. even here he only won the bronze but we know he is talented, and he is still young and can improve again.

back to the main topic, Mirhashem is currently 5th with only 2 events left, European Champs next week and the Final GP
1.KOR 487 / 2.GBR 369 / 3.CHN 365 / 4.JOR 302 / 5.IRN 297 / 6.ESP 274 / 7.BEL 272 / 8.BRA 270 / 9.TPE 260 / 10.CRO 258 / 11.RUS 246

[_Navid_]

Our entire taekwondo team participated in a G1 competition in Serbia. again some mistakes from our federation, most of our athletes didn't need to participate here, they already fulfilled their max 40pts per year in G1/G2 events. yet they participated and Hadipour even lost to some guy from Tunisia !! they are doing the same mistake as 2016, no need to exhaust our team when they don't need these points. it was only important for Mirhashem and Mardani. Mirhashem won the gold (even though only in overtime) but he is not going to receive 10pts , but only 4, because he already had 36 pts from other events this year. so the only tournament left for him is the Final GP. and Mardani failed once again this time against an unknown guy from Poland in the semifinal. he is recovering from an injury, if our coach was smart, they had to let mardani rest and prepares only for the Final GP or even only for the "Grand Slam".

but this is not the reason I'm writing this, it was a minor event, the reason I brought up this Serbia Tournament is because I just noticed something sad and surprising, something you didn't read about it anywhere YET, while checking the results I saw an Iranian athlete participating under Serbian flag, and this isn't some random guy, this is our World Champion, Mehdi Khodabakhshi !!! it seems he is married to a Serbian girl and living in Serbia for a while. I'm not sure if he can qualify for the Olympics for Serbia because he was participating for Iran a year ago, but I'm not sure about the rules maybe he can !!! he isn't in a good shape recently. even here he only won the bronze but we know he is talented, and he is still young and can improve again.

back to the main topic, Mirhashem is currently 5th with only 2 events left, European Champs next week and the Final GP
1.KOR 487 / 2.GBR 369 / 3.CHN 365 / 4.JOR 302 / 5.IRN 297 / 6.ESP 274 / 7.BEL 272 / 8.BRA 270 / 9.TPE 260 / 10.CRO 258 / 11.RUS 246

Damn, Khodabakhshi is my favorite Taekwondo athlete. I follow his social media so I know he spends a lot of time in Serbia's training facilities with his beautiful wife who is also a Taekwondo athlete. But now it makes sense! Hope he won't be allowed to compete for Serbia.

[_Navid_]

Iran won 3 gold medals in world U23 freestyle wrestling championships.
Really impressed with Goleij, Ghasempour and specially our heavyweight Zare who destroyed all his opponents before the end of the match. I think all 3 have a good shot in being an Olympic representative for Iran.

[Foolad Khuzestan]

Kianoush rostami *** edited *** vaghena










KEEP IT CLEAN!

[Irannn]

Today was that special European Championship in Taekwondo. most probably the last ranking event before the Grand Prix Final in Moscow. unfortunatly the worst case scenario happened. both of those guys very close to Mirhashem won the gold and surpassed him in the ranking. I'm waiting for the World Federation to announce the November Ranking to see if mine is correct but they are late and this is how ranking looks like before the last event in December

1. South Korea 487.10
2. Great Britain 393.37
3. China 364.89
4. Spain 313.67
5. Belgium 311.50
----------------
6. Jordan 301.50
---------------
7. Iran 296.87
8. Croatia 282.08
9. Brazil 269.99
10. Russia 260.54
11. Chinese Taipei 260.04

Top 5 (and most probably top 6) qualify for the Olympics. the last event in Russia is only open for top 16 in the WR. the way they award points, Mirhashem Hosseini has to reach top 4 at least. anything less he will be out of the Olympics for sure. only in this tournament there will be a bronze medal match (and no joint bronze medalists) but I think he needs to go to the final to make sure about the Olympic quota. Gold or Silver will secure his spot 100%. I think a bronze medal will be enough but not a sure thing. and a 4th place finish most probably won't be enough. he needs a medal. that's a sure thing.

[IRAN300]

Today was that special European Championship in Taekwondo. most probably the last ranking event before the Grand Prix Final in Moscow. unfortunatly the worst case scenario happened. both of those guys very close to Mirhashem won the gold and surpassed him in the ranking. I'm waiting for the World Federation to announce the November Ranking to see if mine is correct but they are late and this is how ranking looks like before the last event in December

1. South Korea 487.10
2. Great Britain 393.37
3. China 364.89
4. Spain 313.67
5. Belgium 311.50
----------------
6. Jordan 301.50
---------------
7. Iran 296.87
8. Croatia 282.08
9. Brazil 269.99
10. Russia 260.54
11. Chinese Taipei 260.04

Top 5 (and most probably top 6) qualify for the Olympics. the last event in Russia is only open for top 16 in the WR. the way they award points, Mirhashem Hosseini has to reach top 4 at least. anything less he will be out of the Olympics for sure. only in this tournament there will be a bronze medal match (and no joint bronze medalists) but I think he needs to go to the final to make sure about the Olympic quota. Gold or Silver will secure his spot 100%. I think a bronze medal will be enough but not a sure thing. and a 4th place finish most probably won't be enough. he needs a medal. that's a sure thing.

How does the seeding for the GP final draw looks like ?

[_Navid_]

Today was that special European Championship in Taekwondo. most probably the last ranking event before the Grand Prix Final in Moscow. unfortunatly the worst case scenario happened. both of those guys very close to Mirhashem won the gold and surpassed him in the ranking. I'm waiting for the World Federation to announce the November Ranking to see if mine is correct but they are late and this is how ranking looks like before the last event in December

1. South Korea 487.10
2. Great Britain 393.37
3. China 364.89
4. Spain 313.67
5. Belgium 311.50
----------------
6. Jordan 301.50
---------------
7. Iran 296.87
8. Croatia 282.08
9. Brazil 269.99
10. Russia 260.54
11. Chinese Taipei 260.04

Top 5 (and most probably top 6) qualify for the Olympics. the last event in Russia is only open for top 16 in the WR. the way they award points, Mirhashem Hosseini has to reach top 4 at least. anything less he will be out of the Olympics for sure. only in this tournament there will be a bronze medal match (and no joint bronze medalists) but I think he needs to go to the final to make sure about the Olympic quota. Gold or Silver will secure his spot 100%. I think a bronze medal will be enough but not a sure thing. and a 4th place finish most probably won't be enough. he needs a medal. that's a sure thing.

This sucks. Let's hope he performs like the last 3 grand prix matches. He needs 3 wins to secure his spot.
Do you have any idea who will be in his draw?

[Irannn]

The official document says they will use the November ranking for the seeding, and WT still didn't announce the ranking even though today is 3rd November ! and I have to remind you guys, my ranking is different than the current WR, calculating the current ranking is really hard because I have to deduce some points from October 2018, 2017, 2016 and I don't have all those information but I can guess few things.

Mirhashem is currently 6th, and they are supposed to "not count" these European Championship for the November Ranking (it will be counted for December) but I know things can change easily. if it was based on the current ranking Mirhashem had to face Pontes of Brazil (very dangerous opponent) in the first round but that Brazilian guy won two G2 tournaments last month so I assume he will climb the ranking and Mirhashem has to face Brecic of Croatia or Denisenko of Russia. hopefully it will be Brecic. probably the best matchup for Mihashem but I also think Denisenko won't be that hard too. he is far from his best days.

if Mirhasehm stays on 6th he will most probably face Zhao of China in QF, very tough match but at least better than facing Lee of Korea. personally I hope Mirhashem somehow goes down 1 place and be 7th. because Bradley Sindon (GBR) is a much easier matchup for him. but all these guesses are based on one simple fact, everybody shows up ! top 3 are guaranteed their Olympic spot. it's always possible if they don't want to participate but usually everybody participates in the final GP.

Soroush Ahmadi also can plan a big role here, he will be 13th or something in the WR, in that case he has to face one of Mirhashem's opponent in the first round. best scenario is him facing AbuGhaush of Jordan and beating him. still Mirhashem has to make it to the top 4. but if Abughaush loses in the first round. even a 4th place finish will be enough (most probably) for him.

bottom line. I tried to be very accurate with my calculations, but it comes to 1pt or even less than that in some scenarios. A small mistake from me is always possible. if Mirhashem fails to qualify because of 1-2 point, then maybe we can bring this case to CAS (but I know our federation isn't that smart) because even "participating points" in the World Championship would be enough. I mean he didn't even have to win a match in Manchester to grab some points. that was G12 event.

[IRAN300]

The official document says they will use the November ranking for the seeding, and WT still didn't announce the ranking even though today is 3rd November ! and I have to remind you guys, my ranking is different than the current WR, calculating the current ranking is really hard because I have to deduce some points from October 2018, 2017, 2016 and I don't have all those information but I can guess few things.

Mirhashem is currently 6th, and they are supposed to "not count" these European Championship for the November Ranking (it will be counted for December) but I know things can change easily. if it was based on the current ranking Mirhashem had to face Pontes of Brazil (very dangerous opponent) in the first round but that Brazilian guy won two G2 tournaments last month so I assume he will climb the ranking and Mirhashem has to face Brecic of Croatia or Denisenko of Russia. hopefully it will be Brecic. probably the best matchup for Mihashem but I also think Denisenko won't be that hard too. he is far from his best days.

if Mirhasehm stays on 6th he will most probably face Zhao of China in QF, very tough match but at least better than facing Lee of Korea. personally I hope Mirhashem somehow goes down 1 place and be 7th. because Bradley Sindon (GBR) is a much easier matchup for him. but all these guesses are based on one simple fact, everybody shows up ! top 3 are guaranteed their Olympic spot. it's always possible if they don't want to participate but usually everybody participates in the final GP.

Soroush Ahmadi also can plan a big role here, he will be 13th or something in the WR, in that case he has to face one of Mirhashem's opponent in the first round. best scenario is him facing AbuGhaush of Jordan and beating him. still Mirhashem has to make it to the top 4. but if Abughaush loses in the first round. even a 4th place finish will be enough (most probably) for him.

bottom line. I tried to be very accurate with my calculations, but it comes to 1pt or even less than that in some scenarios. A small mistake from me is always possible. if Mirhashem fails to qualify because of 1-2 point, then maybe we can bring this case to CAS (but I know our federation isn't that smart) because even "participating points" in the World Championship would be enough. I mean he didn't even have to win a match in Manchester to grab some points. that was G12 event.

Sepas
Obviously the quarterfinal match will be essential.
One other (pessimistic) scenario for Mirhashem is to get the quota at the Asian Qualifier, in case Mardani doesn’t finish in top 6, which looks pretty likely. Even though anything is possible with that guy.