Iran’s Journey to Russia… The Solstice of Changing Fortunes

Persianfootball.com (Behrou G.) – TEHRAN, At 12 p.m. on June 21st, 2014, as Team Melli was about to enter the field for a memorable World Cup match against one of the best teams in the world and a pre-tournament favorite, the sun had reached its lowest point of the year over the noon sky in Belo Horizonte.

There was pandemonium outside the stadium as Iranian fans fought their way through traffic and a sea of Argentineans to reach their seats in time. Entrance to the stadium was disorderly compared to other 2014 venues and black-market tickets were fetching as much as $1000 USD for the sold-out event.

But nothing seemed to dampen the mood of the jubilant Team Melli fans whose passion and clamor more than made up for their numerical disadvantage – among them, the legendary Hassan Rowshan, the second of only six Iranians to have scored in a World Cup.

And there were many reasons to be optimistic. Team Melli had an impressive record in its last 13 matches since the re-start of the World Cup qualifying campaign in 2013, outscoring its opponents by 3 to 1 and with just one loss to Guinea in the process. An average of 1.7 goals per game and only 0.5 goals against was indeed an impressive record to boast.

The Iranian defensive line had also proven resilient and unbreakable in their previous World Cup match against Nigeria, as well as their last three World Cup qualifiers, without allowing in a single goal. In fact, Team Melli had shut out its opponents in 60 percent of those 13 matches.

But it was the very position of the sun over the Belo Horizonte sky that held the most impressive record and promise for the Iranians: Not only were they undefeated on the June solstice in their two previous World Cup encounters against Angola and the United States, they had also registered their only World Cup win on such a day.

Indeed, the longest day of the year in the northern hemisphere had proven to be a long day for Iran’s opponents and an occasion for long and wild street parties after Iran defeated the United States 2-1, in one of the most anticipated and hard fought clashes of the 1998 World Cup in France – a match that prompted the FIFA Fair Play Award for both countries.

As fortune would have it, the 2014 June solstice would also come to an end with street celebrations for the Iranians – despite a 1-0 loss to Argentina. After all, had it not been for some dreadful officiating and an injury-time moment of brilliance from Lionel Messi, the Iranians would have improved on their stellar record with a solid and equally stellar performance.

But as the days got shorter in Iran following the summer solstice and the Battle of Belo, so did the Iranians’ fortunes and their defensive prowess. A heartbreaking 3-1 loss to already eliminated Bosnia ended Iran’s World Cup dreams and sent the 10,000 Iranian fans in Brazil packing for the long journey home, after their worst ever finish in the tournament at 28th.

Seven months later, it was the 124th ranked Iraq who sent the Iranians home early, by scoring three times in their 2015 Asian Cup quarter-finals match. Despite the large contingent of Team Melli supporters in Australia numbering as much as 30,000 for some matches, the Iranians finished in 6th place, their worst ever finish in that tournament as well.

Two months later, the Iranian defense succumbed to another three goals in a single match, in front of 30,000 Team Melli fans – this time in an international friendly against similarly ranked Sweden. Accordingly, some fans were left wondering if those results were indicative of post-Argentina defensive doldrums and a period of turmoil for Team Melli.

Unfortunately, Team Melli’s statistical records seemed to suggest so. The last one year period where the Iranian defense had given away more than two goals in three matches was 12 years prior. In that period (August 2003 – July 2004) Team Melli had played a total of 22 matches, succumbing to three goals in only three matches, one of which was a victory.

In the post Argentina period however, Team Melli had succumbed to three goals, three times in a span of only 9 matches and without registering a victory in any of them. But Iran’s woes in that period were not limited to defense and a subsequent 1-1 tie against 173rd ranked Turkmenistan in 2018 World Cup qualifying further highlighted that.

While Team Melli went into its clash against Argentina outscoring its opponents by more than 3 to 1, it has managed less than half that ratio since – outscoring them only 1.5 to 1. Average goals per game are down 20 percent while average goals against have soared a staggering 70 percent, with the average FIFA ranking of the opponents almost the same for both periods.

Team Melli’s tie against Turkmenistan also marked one of only two times Iran has opened its World Cup qualification campaign without a victory since its debut in 1974. Both of those occasions coincided with periods of turmoil under the atrocious management of the inexperienced Ali Parvin in 1993 and Ali Daei in 2008 – both coaches were later dismissed in mid-campaign.

But the one thing Iran’s manager Carlos Queiroz has proven in the last four years, is that he can deliver the best results when he is under pressure from both his fans and critics alike. A 2-0 defeat of 15th ranked Chile in an international friendly in March and three straight wins to end the 2014 World Cup qualifying campaign, suggest that his guidance can lift Team Melli to a stellar performance at any time.

Iranian fans are also hoping that the arrival of a new summer solstice after the Turkmenistan match has ushered in another reversal of fortunes, this time for the better. After all, as one of the most recited verses of Persian poetry from the great Hafez suggests “like that joy’s time remained not; this grief’s time, shall not remain”.

So as the sun shone on the lions of Persia for thousands of years, both in nature and through one of the most recognized and revered emblems in Iran’s history, the Cheetahs and their fans are almost certain that the sun will be shining on them in the remainder of their journey to Russia – to set up another memorable June solstice clash in 2018 on European soil, when and where they remain undefeated.