Iran’s path to Russia: An analysis

Persianfootball.com – KUALA LUMPUR, Team Meli’s path to Russia was drawn up last Tuesday in Kuala Lampur at the Asian Football Confederation’s headquarters. The results left many, if not most Team Meli fans quite pleased with the draw which seemingly avoided much more “non football related/off the field issues” (as head coach Carlos Queiroz would put it) by not falling into the same group as Saudi Arabia.

The group looks very similar to the group Iran topped in the 2014 World Cup qualifiers – 3 of the 5 opponents Team Meli will face (Korea Republic, Uzbekistan, and Qatar) were grouped with Iran on their road to Brazil.

Following the draw, the coaches of the 12 teams shared their thoughts on the challenges they will face going forward and who they see as the favorites to qualify. Anyone familiar with Carlos Queiroz was not surprised to hear him dub Korea Republic and Qatar as the favorites ahead of Iran. The former Real Madrid and Portugal manager is known for being a bit too humble at times with an intention to create a mind game.

While Queiroz wouldn’t admit this himself, it is clear that his agenda is to manipulate the opposition, alleviate pressure from his team, while at the same time putting pressure on the Iranian Football Federation to create better conditions for the team, players, and staff – an ongoing problem Queiroz has voiced over the last 5 years he’s spent in Iran. Meanwhile, Qatar head coach Jose Daniel Carreno, Korea Republic head coach Uli Stielike and China assistant coach Ou Chuliang all acknowledged Iran as one of the favorites to advance. Not really a surprise comment to be made about the #1 ranked Asian team, however,World Cup qualification has always been a tricky thing for Team Meli to handle – no matter the route they’re faced with.

The 5 opponents will all present different challenges in different environments over the course of the next 18 months and as proven in the past, Team Meli will have to be on top of their game if they hope to advance to Russia. With the growing level of competition in Asian football, easy 3 points is becoming a harder thing to come across and not as easy for fans to demand.

Korea Republic – one of the most intense rivalries in Asian football has been between Iran and Korea Republic, especially over the last 20 years. The two sides had a very heated exchange en route to Brazil when Choi Kang-Hee came out accusing Iran of being bad hosts for not providing their team with better training pitches, hotel, services, etc. during their trip to Tehran in October of 2012 – falling 1-0 to Iran in Azadi stadium. He followed up his criticisms by saying he had hoped that Uzbekistan qualify for the world cup instead of Iran. Iran would go on to win 1-0 again, this time in Ulsan, and qualify for the 2014 world cup in Brazil as the top team in their group (only the second time in Iran’s history that they were able to qualify as the first placed team in their group).

Korea Republic looked for redemption when they came back to Tehran in late 2014 prior to the Asian Cup and lost by that seemingly reoccurring 1-0 margin yet again. While it is clear that Iran has created a little winning streak, it is certain that Korea has been growing hungrier and hungrier for a victory against the #1 ranked team in Asia and is the most likely opponent to cause problems for Team Meli on their journey to Russia.

Most South Korean fans will say their team went through a bit of a rough patch in the 2014 world cup qualifiers and the 2014 World Cup in Brazil, however, Uli Stielike’s team looked rejuvenated in Australia last January when the Koreans finished as runner up in the 2015 Asian Cup. Expectations may be high given Iran’s recent dominance, however, any rational Team Meli fan would probably agree that 3 points over the two matches is probably most likely what they’ll walk away with, anything more would be a great success.

Players to watch out for: Son Heung Min (Tottenham), Ki Seung Yung (Swansea), Kim Shin Wook (Jeounbuk Hyundai)

Uzbekistan – Similarly to Korea, the White Wolves will be very hungry for a victory against Team Meli. A dramatic home loss and an encouraging away win against Iran in the 2014 edition of world cup qualifiers proved Uzbekistan to be a tough side that plays to win, always going for the 3 points. The two sides last met in June of 2015 in a friendly match which Iran won 1-0 thanks to a stoppage time goal from Mehdi Torab in the dying moments of the game.

The team has a good track record of scoring a significant portion of their goals on set pieces and have no shortage of players capable from converting their chances when given open space around the 18. That being said, the Team Meli defense will need to be very tight against the Uzbeks who will give it everything they’ve got to go for the 3 points both in Tehran and in Tashkent. Any outcome in these two matches are realistic – Team Meli fans should be happy if they can manage to come away with 4 points, although 3 may be just as likely between the two matches.

Players to watch out for: Odil Akmedov (FC Krasnodar), Server Djeparov (Lokomtiv Tashkent), Vitaly Denisov (Lokomtiv Moscow)

Qatar – In the 2014 qualifiers they managed to hold Iran to a 0-0 draw and made it very hard for Team Meli to pull out a 1-0 win in Doha in their second encounter of the final qualification phase. The Persian Gulf country looked to be even hungrier for a win during the 2015 Asian Cup tournament and again made it very difficult for Iran to scrap the 3 points from them – it took a moment of brilliance from Sardar Azmoun to defeat Qatar in their group A clash in Australia.

While their domestic league (and as well as their national team) has had the luxury of having boat loads of money invested into it with top of the line facilities, high-profile foreign players & coaches, and many naturalized citizens brought in to play for their national team, they have still failed to assert themselves as a top Asian side. Despite the lack of accomplishments Qatar may have, they certainly always make it difficult for Iran to come away with 3 points – something Queiroz is more than aware of. We can surely expect a cautious approach to these matches similar to what we have seen in the past. 4 to 6 points should be attainable between the two matches against Qatar in the final phase.

Players to watch out for: Sebastian Soria (Al Rayyan), Hassan Al-Haidos (Al Sadd), Mohammed Kaola (Al Sadd)

China – One of the bigger surprises of the 2015 Asian Cup, the Chinese topped their group with three wins out of three group stage matches only to fall 2-0 in the quarterfinals to eventual champions Australia. The team slipped a little bit in 2018 world cup qualification, just barely managing to squeeze their way into the final round as the 4th and final second place team to clinch a spot into the third round. They will surely look to get back on track and make a big push to get to Russia.

The Chinese don’t have as much history with Team Meli as the teams above, however, they have had several encounters with Iran that Iranian fans will never forget – the semi-final of the 2004 Asian Cup and the 1990 world cup qualifiers, both of which they eliminated Iran from advancing. Iran last played China in a competitive match in 2007 where they only pulled off a 2-2 draw. So like any other team in this group, China will be looking to take some points away from Team Meli for sure, although unlikely, it is still possible. Given that Iran has enjoyed a much more stable and consistent progress of their national team’s form over the last 5 years as mentioned by assistant coach Ou Chuliang, Carlos Queiroz’s men should manage to take care of business against China and snag 6 points from them.

Players to watch out for: Zheng Zhi (Guangzhou Evergrande), Yang Xu (Shandong Lueng), Yu Dabao (Beijing Guoan)

Syria – Very few people expected Syria to make it this far, what they have achieved given the circumstances of their country is both remarkable and something for everyone to admire. Their team has a unique driving force to motivate them that no other team in the world has. They played very decent football in the second round of world cup qualifiers – scoring 14 goals in 6 matches and winning every match along the way excluding their two encounters with Japan.

Most would have probably thought Singapore would be favorites to finish second in group E, however, Syria proved that their hunger to bring some light and happiness into the lives of their people would be enough to see them through. As admirable as their performances in the second round may have been, it is unlikely they will be able to test Iran during this round. Iran should snatch 6 points pretty comfortably seeing how other Asian giants such as Japan have fared against them recently, however, Team Meli fans learned the hard way that you can never count out any opposition after falling to Lebanon in Beirut in 2012 – Iran will likely not make the mistake of taking an opposition so lightly ever again, especially not as long as Queiroz is in charge. Six points should be expected by fans, but with caution.

Players to watch out for: Mohammad Khirbin (Al Dharfa), Sanharib Maliki (Kasimpasa), Abdelrazaq Al Hussain (Al Ahed)

An upcoming golden generation of talented players, many of which have gained a lot of experience under Carlos Queiroz, makes this current crop a very exciting and promising one to watch out for in the coming 18 months and beyond. A perfect combination of experienced players along with youngsters Queiroz has introduced since the 2015 Asian Cup have proven to be great additions and will help pave the way to Russia. The road to a world cup has never been a smooth one for Iran, but if there has ever been a campaign that looks like it should have the potential to run smoother than years past, it can certainly be said that this will be it. Whether Queiroz’s men will be able to carry out the expectations remains to be seen.